The Great Pit
"There's a hole in the world
Like a great black pit
and the vermin of the world inhabit it
And its morals aren't worth
what a pig could spit
And it goes by the name of London."
"No Place like London" by Stephen Sondheim from Sweeney Todd
Life was cheap in 18th century London. As the industrial revolution gathered steam and refugees from the shires flocked to the great city in search of work, the city, which was still reeling from the recent plague years, was unprepared, civilly and morally, for the great influx of population. Poverty and decadence were widespread, and the separation between the classes was distinct.
For all intents and purposes, there were three classes of people in London at the beginning of the industrial revolution: the gentry, who included those with land and title, the merchants, or shop and factory owners, and the working class, which was by far the largest of the three classes. Within the working class were those who worked either in the factories or stores, and those who subsisted through service to the other classes. Beneath all of these was the underclass of beggars, thieves, and prostitutes and common criminals. Movement between classes was rare, except in a downward spiral, and many working class people were forced by situations into the beggar and criminal underclass.
London's poor street
London's poor street
Although the city had managed to survive the late 17th century plague, disease was prevalent in London as sanitary conditions in the growing municipality were less than ideal. The Thames River was considered the dirtiest river in Europe: raw sewage and industrial waste was dumped into the street without second thought. Smallpox, plague, fever and consumption were the most common causes of death — not including accident.
In an effort to survive, whole families, including children, would work for just pennies a day in the mills and factories that had sprung up around the city. Tenements housing dozens of families in small apartments dotted the landscape creating a dismal scene of poverty and chaos. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire Thieves, ruffians and "sturdy beggars" plagued the streets of the capital, and no one dared walk the streets at night, for fear of his life.
Charles Dickens summed up life for the working class and London in general in Oliver Twist: "The street was narrow and muddy, and the air was impregnated with filthy odours... Drunken men and women were positively wallowing in filth; and from several of the doorways, great ill-looking fellows were cautiously emerging, bound, to all appearance, on no very well-disposed or harmless errands."
Monday, November 16, 2009
Thursday, September 24, 2009
letters 4.let.0040040 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
During our review of records at FBI headquarters, we found a July 8, 1947, teletype message from the FBI office in Dallas, Texas, to FBI headquarters and the FBI office in Cincinnati, Ohio. An FBI spokesperson confirmed the authenticity of the message.
According to the message, an Eighth Air Force headquarters official had telephonically informed the FBI's Dallas office of the recovery near Roswell of a hexagonal-shaped disc suspended from a large balloon by cable. The message further stated that the disc and balloon were being sent to Wright Field (now Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio) for examination. According to the Eighth Air Force official, the recovered object resembled a high-altitude weather balloon with a radar reflector. The message stated that no further investigation by the FBI was being conducted. (A copy of the teletype message appears in app. II.)
To follow up on the July 8th message, we reviewed microfilm abstracts of the FBI Dallas and Cincinnati office activities for July 1947. An abstract prepared by the FBI Dallas office on July 12, 1947, summarized the particulars of the July 8th message. There was no mention in the Cincinnati office abstracts of the crash or recovery of an airborne object near Roswell.
Because the FBI message reported that debris from the Roswell crash was being transported to Wright Field for examination, we attempted to determine whether military regulations existed for handling such debris. We were unable to locate any applicable regulation. As a final step, we reviewed Air Materiel Command (Wright Field) records from 1947 to 1950 for evidence of command personnel involvement in this matter. We found no records mentioning the Roswell crash or the examination by Air Materiel Command personnel of any debris recovered from the crash.
QUERIES TO FEDERAL AGENCIES REGARDING RECORDS ON THE CRASH
We sent letters to several federal agencies asking for any government records they might have concerning the Roswell crash. In this regard, we contacted DOD, the National Security Council, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, the CIA, the FBI, and the Department of Energy.
The National Security Council, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and the Department of Energy responded that they had no government records relating to the Roswell crash. (Copies of their responses appear in app. III, IV, and V.) The FBI, DOD, and the CIA provided the following information.
According to the message, an Eighth Air Force headquarters official had telephonically informed the FBI's Dallas office of the recovery near Roswell of a hexagonal-shaped disc suspended from a large balloon by cable. The message further stated that the disc and balloon were being sent to Wright Field (now Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio) for examination. According to the Eighth Air Force official, the recovered object resembled a high-altitude weather balloon with a radar reflector. The message stated that no further investigation by the FBI was being conducted. (A copy of the teletype message appears in app. II.)
To follow up on the July 8th message, we reviewed microfilm abstracts of the FBI Dallas and Cincinnati office activities for July 1947. An abstract prepared by the FBI Dallas office on July 12, 1947, summarized the particulars of the July 8th message. There was no mention in the Cincinnati office abstracts of the crash or recovery of an airborne object near Roswell.
Because the FBI message reported that debris from the Roswell crash was being transported to Wright Field for examination, we attempted to determine whether military regulations existed for handling such debris. We were unable to locate any applicable regulation. As a final step, we reviewed Air Materiel Command (Wright Field) records from 1947 to 1950 for evidence of command personnel involvement in this matter. We found no records mentioning the Roswell crash or the examination by Air Materiel Command personnel of any debris recovered from the crash.
QUERIES TO FEDERAL AGENCIES REGARDING RECORDS ON THE CRASH
We sent letters to several federal agencies asking for any government records they might have concerning the Roswell crash. In this regard, we contacted DOD, the National Security Council, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, the CIA, the FBI, and the Department of Energy.
The National Security Council, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and the Department of Energy responded that they had no government records relating to the Roswell crash. (Copies of their responses appear in app. III, IV, and V.) The FBI, DOD, and the CIA provided the following information.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Tachibana Incident 4.tac.0002 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
THE "MAGIC" BACKGROUND OF PEARL HARBOR
Furthermore, reports were to be made on warships and aircraft carriers at anchor, and although not so important, those tied up at wharves, buoys, and in docks. The types and classes of vessels were to be designated briefly and special mention was to be made when two or more vessels were alongside the same wharf.[584] Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
On September 29, 1941 the details of a special code to be used in referring to the location of American warships in Pearl Harbor was sent to Tokyo through diplomatic channels. "KS" meant the repair dock in the Navy yard; "FV" was the moorings in the vicinity of Ford Island; "FG" designated the location alongside Ford Island; and "A" and "B" indicated east and west sides of "FG" respectively.[585]
151. Japanese Report on American Transportation of English Troops
Consul Nagao Kita, on October 2, 1941, reported that an American steamship, possibly the Monterey from Australia, had entered port bearing approximately 600 Australians and New Zealand air corps troops under the command of Wing Commander Axel Richards. English language newspapermen stated that this was the first instance of an American ship being used to transport English troops.[586]
(e) Reports from South America
152. Japanese Interest in Brazilian Air Fields
The Japanese Foreign Minister, in a dispatch to Rio de Janeiro on September 29, 1941, asked that plans for landing fields on islands near Brazil be investigated and the information be sent to Tokyo at once.[587]
153. Minister Ishii Reports American Planes Arriving in Brazil
Japanese Minister Itaro Ishii in Rio de Janeiro informed Ambassador Nomura in Washington that the United States was dispatching weekly two large planes, each capable of carrying 62 persons, to Bathhurst in British Gambia. According to information gathered by Consul Ishii, plans were being made to dispatch by plane several thousand technicians, possibly including military officers.[588]
(f) Reports from Capetown, South Africa
154. Japanese Agents Reports the Transportation of British Soldiers
Two Japanese naval intelligence dispatches from Capetown, South Africa to Tokyo contained information concerning British vessels entering that port, and accordingly were retransmitted to Berlin. Approximately 8,000 British soldiers whose destination appeared to be Iran were embarked on five large transports, accompanied by a 7,000- or 8,000-ton cruiser, which had entered port on September 11, 1941 and sailed again September 14.
155. Japan Watches British Shipping Near Cape of Good Hope
As an aid to Russia, Britain was dispatching airplanes to the Eastern Front, along with aviators, extra machinery parts, gasoline, repair materials and technicians. Some of those were being transported via the White Sea and Murmansk, and part were being sent by the Cape route via Iran.[589]
[584] III, 356.
[585] III, 357.
[586] III, 358.
[587] III, 359.
[588] III, 360.
[589] III, 361.
[131]
Between September 16 and 21, 1941 seven British vessels were reported by Japanese spies to have entered Capetown for two-day stopovers. A camouflaged cruiser, on which a number of soldiers had embarked, and which appeared to be headed for Iran, entered port on September 18, and sailed on September 20, 1941.[590]
(g) Reports from Vladivostok, Russia
156. Departure of Russian Submarines
From Japanese diplomats in Vladivostok, came a ship movement report on September 4, 1941. It revealed that most of the Russian submarines seemed to have gone to sea, though their minesweepers were still engaging in strenuous daily practice. Detailed descriptions of the ships in the harbor and the arrival of a United States tanker on September 3, 1941 were reported.[591]
157. Japanese Learn of British Supply Route to Russia
On October 15, 1941 Japanese intelligence reports revealed that a tremendous amount of British supplies was being shipped to Russia through Capetown, Durban and Lourenco Marques. Aid to Russia via Iran had become difficult owing to a lack of docking facilities in the Persian Gulf, and because of poorly operated railroads in Iran. For this reason Russia and Great Britain had decided to appoint Brigadier General Sir Godfrey Dean Rhodes, then Director of Railways and Harbors in British Kenyauganda, to the position of Director of Transportation in Iran.[592]
[590] III, 362.
[591] III, 363.
[592] III, 364.
[132]
THE "MAGIC" BACKGROUND OF PEARL HARBOR
PART C—JAPANESE DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITIES THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
(a) Japanese-American Relations
158. Negotiations to Return American Missionaries to the United States Continue
In spite of the fact that on July 19, 1941 Ambassador Nomura had suggested the discontinuance of negotiations regarding the thirteen American missionaries in Korea, he wired on August 8, 1941 that, if Japanese government officials would permit, the Missionary Society was ready to return its representatives to the United States on furlough. He asked that this information be conveyed to the office of the Governor-General of Seoul, Capital of Chosen, for appropriate action.[593]
159. Japan Fears American and British Alliance with Russia[594]
Since Great Britain and America had already frozen Japanese funds and effected other retaliatory measures because of Japan's aggression into French Indo-China, the Japanese Military Attache in Washington warned his government, on August 9, 1941, that both these countries would take further action if Tokyo attempted to invade Siam. At the present time there were rumors of a meeting between President Roosevelt and Prime Minister Churchill on the Atlantic. It seemed evident by this increased British-American cooperation in Far Eastern affairs that once Japan entered Siam it would face war with the two allies.[595]
By strengthening its defenses in the Alaskan Aleutians the United States had also given clear indication of its growing interest in Russia. If Japan made any move to invade Siberia by force, American aid to Russia would not only increase, but economic and diplomatic relations between the United States and Japan would be completely severed. Even if war did not result, the Japanese Military Attache was certain that at least a severe commercial war would be waged by the United States against Japan.[596]
In view of this situation, the Japanese Military Attache, on August 9, 1941, suggested that Japan delay any northern advance until Russia's defeat by Germany. Once the Russo-German war was concluded, he felt certain that America's hostility toward Japan would lessen. On the other hand, there was always the possibility that the Russo-German war would be long and that as a result Great Britain, America and Russia would attempt to encircle and destroy Japan. In taking this possibility into consideration, the Japanese Military Attache warned that Tokyo should make preparations for dealing with even the most disadvantageous contingencies.[597] He explained that the reason American tankers were being sent to Russia by way of Vladivostok was because America had experienced great difficulty in finding another route by which to send aid. There were some indications that in the future American tankers would detour via Nikolaevsk.[598]
160. Inventory of Secret Funds in Japanese Legations
On August 11, 1941 the Japanese Ambassador in Washington transmitted an itemized account of special secret funds on hand in the Japanese Legations in the United States. Ap-
[593] III, 365.
[594] Information in this section did not become available until May, 1945.
[595] III, 366.
[596] Ibid.
[597] III, 367.
[598] III, 368. These messages were not translated until January and May 1945, respectively.
[133]
proximately $17,425 was contained in a secret fund for propaganda and intelligence purposes, and $20,556 was being held in a special fund in the name of the councilor. In the secret fund in San Francisco was $5,000, while the amounts on deposit in San Francisco and New York were $47,000 and $54,606 respectively.[599]
161. New Military Attache Appointed to Japanese Embassy
Meanwhile, on August 12, 1941 Foreign Minister Teijiro Toyoda in Tokyo informed Ambassador Nomura that Supply Officers Colonel Kenkichi Shinjo, Major Kita Yoshioka and Hinkai Ko had been appointed as assistant military attaches to the Legation in Washington. The United States government was to be informed of these appointments.[600]
162. Tokyo Reports Chinese Attempt to Draw United States into War against Japan
A strange situation was reported on August 13, 1941 in a dispatch retransmitted by Tokyo from Peking to Washington. According to the message, the Chungking faction in the North China area had ordered the assassination of American citizens in the hope that this would provoke the United States into entering the war. Since the Japanese militia in this area, the Harada Corps, had been forewarned, every precaution was now being taken to guard against any such mishap.
In spite of these precautions, threatening notes in the form of handbills had been scattered near the entrances of Christian Churches operated by Americans in Kaifeng, and five persons had broken into the Baptist Church threatening Americans with pistols and making away with cameras, papers and other such articles. Although the Harada Corps was investigating these incidents and was offering protection to all Americans in its jurisdiction, it was feared that in actuality the Americans were making preparations to evacuate the North China area.[601]
Furthermore, many cases of interference with American rights and interests in Japan and Japanese occupied areas of China had been reported. On August 13, 1941 Ambassador Nomura had submitted information to Tokyo from the State Department that Japanese authorities had undertaken widespread arbitrary activities against American official establishments. In North China, the travel of Americans, including American consular officials, was being stopped, restricted, or delayed. At Peitaiho, the transportation of baggage of Americans to the railway station was forbidden and the railway refused to receive baggage for checking. In Japan proper the travel of American citizens had been restricted so that Americans had been unable to obtain accommodations to Shanghai in returning to the United States.[602]
Other infringements upon the rights of American citizens and upon American institutions were reported from Tsingtao, Hwanghsien, Shantung, Tientsin, Foochow, Hsinan and Kobe. Such treatment of American diplomatic and consular officials, as well as American business representatives, at the hands of Japanese authorities or Japanese sponsored organizations was, in each case, seemingly without provocation. Unwarranted interference, rigid restrictions and control over the movements and activities of Americans were also reported at Swatow, Mukden, Fushun and Dairen. In one instance, the American Catholic Mission Sisters were permitted to visit the Consulate for passport services only on the condition that they would guarantee to return to Fushun the same day. Furthermore, when the Consul at Mukden had attempted to telephone to the Consul at Dairen, he was informed that he had "better cancel the call".[603]
[599] III, 369.
[600] III, 370.
[601] III, 371.
[602] III, 372.
[603] III, Ibid.
[134]
THE "MAGIC" BACKGROUND OF PEARL HARBOR
163. Mr. Malcolm Lovell Offers to Mediate between Japan and China
Ambassador Nomura reported on August 13, 1941 that the German Charge d'affaires, Mr. Thomsen, had called on Mr. Sadao Iguchi to request that the latter meet Mr. Malcolm Lovell, a New York banker, who was a close friend of Mr. Kuo Tai Chi, Chief of the Foreign Section of the Chungking government.[604] Mr. Thomsen had become acquainted with Mr. Lovell when the banker, who was interested in the relief work of the Quakers, had come to discuss Quaker activities in occupied France.
At the meeting of Mr. Iguchi and Mr. Lovell on August 13, 1941 Mr. Lovell spoke of his great friendship with Mr. Kuo Tai Chi ever since his college days, and discussed his interest as a Quaker in achieving peace. At the time Mr. Kuo Tai Chi had passed through the United States en route to his home from England, he had informed Mr. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire Lovell that peace between Japan and China would be welcomed under certain conditions.[605]
According to Mr. Kuo Tai Chi, a previous Japanese peace feeler had not reached the important authorities in the Chungking government. Since Mr. Lovell's Quaker background made him exceedingly anxious to bring about peace, and because of his very close relations with Mr. Kuo Tai Chi, he asked that he be advised as to the Japanese attitude concerning this matter.
When Mr. Iguchi asked when Mr. Lovell expected to get to Chungking, the banker replied that he had many friends in New York newspaper circles and he was confident of his ability to obtain a permit from the State Department as a special correspondent of one of these papers. He would then establish contact with the Japanese at some point, such as Hongkong. Though he was conscious that considerable difficulty would be encountered in finding terms acceptable to both sides, he felt confident that he could convey the respective opinions of the Japanese authorities and Chungking authorities to each other. Furthermore, if he failed, Japan would not be affected, since he was operating entirely on his own and had no intention of accepting any expenses.
Ambassador Nomura requested Foreign Minister Toyoda to decide whether or not the services of Mr. Lovell could be used, stating that Mr. Thomsen believed him to be a thoroughly reliable character.[606]
164. Japanese Foreign Office Asserts Its Authority in Foreign Relations
On August 15, 1941 Foreign Minister Toyoda instructed Ambassador Nomura that all questions regarding the resuming of sending Japanese ships to the United States should be dealt with by the Japanese Ambassador in Washington, or the Consul General in New York. These instructions were occasioned by a message from Financial Attache Tsutumu Nishiyama to the Minister of Finance in Tokyo.
The Foreign Office was concerned not only with the question of jurisdiction in such matters, but also disturbed because a message had not been sent in an Embassy code, which was a violation of their security instructions.[607]
165. Ambassador Nomura Suggests Suspension of Funds Pending Settlement of Financial Agreement
Proposing to pay Legation salaries out of cash on hand, Ambassador Nomura suggested on August 14, 1941 that remittances from Japan be temporarily postponed. Until such time as a general agreement was concluded between the United States and Japan, it would be impos-
[604] III, 373.
[605] Ibid.
[606] Ibid.
[607] III, 374.
[135]
sible to draw from government funds or to pay the salaries which were remitted from Japan. To discuss this financial situation with the Yokohama Specie Bank, Ambassador Nomura sent Mr. Hirome Hoside to New York.[608]
It will be remembered that the United States extended every facility to the Japanese diplomatic and consular organizations, assuring them permission to draw funds for the maintenance of their offices and for the subsistence and traveling expenses of their personnel.[609]
166. Freezing Order Curtails Japanese-American Trade
Foreseeing no way to make payment for the shipments of oil which Japan badly needed at this time, the Japanese Ambassador advised the exchange of raw silk for oil. It would be fine, he said, if Japan could find a way to make the freezing order ineffective, but it could neither expect much in this direction nor hope that the United States would apply frozen funds to pay for the oil.[610]
167. Ambassador Nomura Reports Indirect Participation of United States in the War Against Germany
As further proof that the United States was indirectly, if not directly, participating in the war on the side of the Allies, Mr. Nomura cited the statement made by the New York Times to the effect that if there were any indications that Soviet Russia was being defeated, the aircraft supplied to Russia should be stopped, since such material might fall eventually into German hands, that not even British and American military observers were permitted to watch the war, and as a result, a true picture of the German-Russian war could not be obtained.[611]
168. Japan Plans to Evacuate Nationals from the United States
Discussions were now being carried on between Japanese officials in American cities and in Mexico in regard to the evacuation of Japanese nationals in this area. Consul Yoshio Muto at San Francisco, in a circular dispatch transmitted August 16, 1941, said that first-generation Japanese who had established themselves in America and second-generation Japanese who had registered for military service were anxious to remain in the United States should a break in Japanese-American relations occur.
Consul Muto added that no indications of unrest were apparent even when such persons heard that Japanese ships on regular schedule were no longer to operate to the west coast. Since many first and second-generation Japanese were actually wavering in their intentions, the Japanese consulate at San Francisco was encouraging these persons through subsidized newspapers and organizations.
All Japanese persons connected with banks and companies with home offices in Japan, as well as others who were employed only in completing unfinished business, would be evacuated. It was imagined, Mr. Muto said, that Japanese residents who had become attached to the land would be dealt quite a blow when such evacuation took place. Therefore, all possible means were being taken to soften the blow.[612]
169. American Officials Search Japanese Business Offices in Los Angeles
An inspection of the NYK, Yokohama Specie Bank, the Sumitomo, the Mitsui, and the Mitsubishi branch offices in Los Angeles by four to seven Treasury Department and FBI officials was reported to Tokyo on August 18, 1941. A thorough and detailed inspection had been
[608] III, 375.
[609] III, 376.
[610] III, 377.
[611] III, 378.
[612] III, 379.
[136]
THE "MAGIC" BACKGROUND OF PEARL HARBOR
made in each office. Not only had the inspectors checked letters of private individuals, but photostatic copies had been made of several thousand documents, although the Sumitomo office had forbidden the photostating of its codes.[613]
Consul Kenji Nakauchi believed that the investigation had been conducted to determine the existence of "subversive acts" in spite of the fact that it was theoretically conducted in conjunction with the freezing order. Official employees of the Yokohama Specie office had been forbidden to enter their offices, or to leave, between 6:00 P.M. and 8:30 A.M. in order to prevent the burning of documents. It had been necessary, Consul Nakauchi disclosed, to secure the approval of the inspectors on all telegraphic communications received or dispatched.[614]
170. Evacuation Committee Meets on August 18, 1941 to Discuss Return of Missionaries
In answer to Ambassador Nomura's dispatch of August 8, 1941, Tokyo communicated a message from the Governor-General of Korea on August 19, 1941 to the effect that the evacuation committee of the Mission in Keijo had met on August 18, 1941 to determine whether the missionaries were to return to America. The Governor-General in Korea promised to keep Foreign Minister Toyoda informed as to the results of the meeting of the evacuation committee.[615]
171. The Japanese Embassy in Washington Reprimands the Tokyo Foreign Office
On August 19, 1941 Japanese representatives in Washington complained that during the past several years the Foreign Office had sent general instructions which did not take into consideration the general world situation and, therefore, missed the most essential points. It was suggested, therefore, that diplomatic matters be turned over to the investigation section for proper classification according to their importance so that the Embassy could dispose of the matters in the order of their urgency.[616]
172. Japan Recognizes Russo-German War as Threat to Its Border
On August 20, 1941 Tokyo replied to Ambassador Nomura's request for information concerning Japan's attitude toward the Russo-German war. While Tokyo did not feel able to predict the outcome of the Russo-German war, it took into consideration the possibility that Soviet Russia might lose the war with the result that the Stalin regime would disintegrate and far eastern Russia be thrown into political confusion.[617]
Moreover, it was necessary to consider that since part of Soviet Russia was adjacent to Japan and Manchukuo, Japan felt the necessity of taking precautionary measures to safeguard its national defense and security. There also remained the possibility of Soviet Russia's being influenced by a third power and consequently permitting the establishment of military bases in the maritime provinces of Siberia or in Kanchataka.
As a result, the Japanese government had decided to increase its forces in Manchukuo, and at the same time, to carry on negotiations in Tokyo with Russian officials in order to solve the various questions pertaining to this area. Tokyo was aware, however, that Russian officials had been warned to be cautious in their attitude toward the forces situated in Manchukuo.[618]
If this increase of Japanese troops in northern China should bring from the United States further demands for explanation by Japan, Ambassador Nomura was advised to impress upon
[613] III, 380.
[614] III, 381.
[615] III, 382.
[616] III, 383.
[617] III, 384. See Section 23, Part A, Rumors Of a British-American-Russian Peace Conference Speed Japanese Action.
[618] Ibid.
[137]
the American government that the troop movement was purely a precautionary measure designed to forestall any unforeseen emergency which would disturb peace in the Far East. To an inquiry from the Russian Ambassador in Tokyo regarding this matter the Japanese Foreign Minister had assured the Russian government that Japan would live up to the Neutrality Pact "as long as Russia did". The Soviet Ambassador was satisfied with this reply.[619]
The Tokyo Foreign Office also requested Ambassador Nomura to call the attention of the United States' authorities to the fact that shipping war materials from the United States to Russia by way of Japanese coastal waters would have an unfavorable effect on the already unstable Japanese-American relations. The Japanese Foreign Minister had already explained the situation to Ambassador Joseph C. Grew in Tokyo.[620]
173. Consul Morishima Suggests Further Precautions to Ensure Secrecy of Dispatches
Asking that the Japanese Ambassador in Washington investigate the telegraphic situation, Consul Morito Morishima in New York protested that the Western Union Telegraph Company had returned one of his dispatches which had been sent to Vancouver. Furthermore, since code messages from the Consulate apparently had been prohibited, requests for transmissions must have been received from Japanese Consulates in Canada.[621]
174. Change Predicted in Japanese American Relations
The Japanese finance officer, Mr. Nishiyama, in a confidential interview on August 21, 1941, was told to expect a change in Japanese-American relations within the next ten days. This change would depend upon the attitude that Japan took during this time.[626]
175. Washington Warns Tokyo of Security Violation
Since Tokyo had requested information regarding American treatment of Japanese officials in connection with all branches of communications, asset freezing, travel and surveillance of diplomatic and consular officers, Ambassador Nomura disseminated the instructions of the Foreign Office as directed. However, as a precautionary measure, he first carefully paraphrased and then encoded these instructions. On August 22, 1941 Ambassador Nomura warned Tokyo that a close watch should be maintained in guarding code secrecy.[627]
177. Japanese Authorities Express Concern over United States' Official Inspection
On August 23, 1941 Financial Attache Tsutumu Nishiyama in Tokyo wired his opinion regarding the bank inspection conducted by the Treasury Department officials and F.B.I. men. He believed that the American inspection came closer to being a search for "subversive acts" rather than an inspection connected with the freezing order.
Influential persons in the Specie Bank, greatly concerned, asked that an investigation be conducted to ascertain the real purpose of the inspection of American officials.[629]
178. Japan Reports Anti-Japanese Activities among American Missionaries in China
A supplementary report on American missionaries in China was sent to Washington by Tokyo on August 25, 1941. Upon investigation, the Japanese professed to have learned that the Church had taken in sixteen wounded enemy troops, many enemy spies and Communists, and had hid them on the church premises. It was further alleged that church officials were
[619] III, 385.
[620] Ibid.
[621] III, 386.
[626] III, 391.
[627] III, 392.
[629] III, 394.
[138]
THE "MAGIC" BACKGROUND OF PEARL HARBOR
sending undercover reports to the enemy and were participating in enemy-like activities. As a result of these findings, nine persons, including missionaries, were confined in a house adjoining the church hospital and kept under surveillance.
Deciding, in view of the critical times, to act with special leniency, the Japanese military command asked Mr. James N. Montgomery, who was responsible for the Americans, to sign a pledge that the Americans would not take part in any similar activities in the future. Consequently, the American citizens were released and the watch removed.[630]
In spite of this expression of Japanese friendliness, the church officials were circulating rumors to the effect that a certain Chinese patient who had died of illness in the hospital, had been murdered by the Japanese.[631]
179. Japan Attempts Disposal of Certain Frozen Funds
On August 25, 1941 the Chief of the Financial Bureau in Tokyo replied to Finance Attache Nishiyama's query concerning United States bonds in Japanese banks in the United States. If turned over secretly to the Japanese Financial Attache, Ambassador or Consul, Tokyo believed that those bonds of which the United States was unaware, could be easily disposed of without the owner's loss of title. When such a method was used, the Japanese official to whom they were entrusted was to issue a receipt giving all the information necessary to identify them. A certified list of these bonds was then to be sent to the Finance Minister in Japan who would in turn make yen payments on principal and interest.
In order to prevent the United States' officials from learning of this plan, deliveries of such certified lists were to be made by Foreign Office couriers. On the other hand, those bonds known to United States officials necessarily would be frozen. No other course could be pursued in such a case since any minor incident at this time could considerably endanger any Japanese-American negotiations.[632]
180. Japan Learns Details of Churchill-Roosevelt Agreement
A report of the Russian Peoples Commissar for Foreign Affairs which had been sent to various Russian representatives in the Orient was authorized by the Japanese government on August 25, 1941. It discussed the terms agreed upon during the present Roosevelt-Churchill conference, and said that in order to ensure the support of American public opinion in sending aid to Great Britain, President Roosevelt had stated that British war aims must be clarified. Churchill had cited the exhaustion and the anti-war sentiment prevalent in British dominions and among the laboring classes, and for these reasons had requested positive aid from America.
America had promised aid in the event of a Japanese attack upon Australia, Burma or the Netherlands East Indies and had agreed to an expansion of the economic war against Japan. American aid was also guaranteed in the Near East in case Germany invaded the Caucasus. Furthermore, the United States extended to Great Britain a grant for military aid and promised American participation against German submarine warfare.[633]
181. American Newspapermen in Italy Forecast Axis Defeat
Word came to the Japanese Embassy in Washington on August 25, 1941 that American newspapermen in Rome were highly pleased with developments in the international situation. They believed that American aid to Britain and Russia would gradually strengthen the en-
[630] III, 395.
[631] Ibid.
[632] III, 396.
[633] III, 397.
[139]
circlement of the European continent, and that the German and Italian armies in North Africa would be cut off from their home countries. They also believed that American aid in the future would be sent by way of Dakar, Bathurst, British Gambia, Basra, Singapore and the Suez.[634]
182. Minister Sakaya Criticizes American Aid to Russia
A report to Tokyo from Minister Tadashi Sakaya concerning a conversation with Hans Frederick Schoenfield, the American Minister in Helsinki, Finland was relayed to Ambassador Nomura in Washington. According to the report, Minister Sakaya had argued that the United States' support of Russia, a country diametrically opposed to the democratic principle, was peculiar.[635]
The American Minister replied that, although he had received no detailed reports from Washington, he imagined that his country considered it essential to support Russia against a greater threat. Furthermore, from the standpoint of the United States, Bolshevism could not constitute a very great threat to other nations because of the tribulation which Russia had suffered in the last ten years.[636]
183. Minister Schoenfield Clarifies American Policy
In answer to a remark concerning the absurdity of the United States' meddling in the affairs of Europe and Asia while adhering to the policy of the Monroe Doctrine, Minister Sakaya was informed by Mr. Schoenfield that though foreign countries were not permitted to seize control of any part of the American continents, the United States did not wish to control any country therein. However, should Germany attempt to contravene the principle of self-determination, which would shatter the foundations of peace between the old and new worlds and upset the economic equilibrium, the United States intended to prevent such action.[637]
The American Minister added that the bad relations between the United States and Japan would probably soon improve and that, as long as the leaders of the two countries continued to negotiate, there was a good chance for a composure of relations between the two countries.[638]
184. Japan Inquires About American Treatment of Japanese Nationals
As relations between Japan and the United States grew steadily worse, Tokyo asked Washington for a report on the methods used by the United States in handling Japanese nationals, since it intended to draw up a reply to an American protest against Japan's control of foreign business in Tokyo.
On August 26, 1941, Mr. Kenji Nakauchi, of the Japanese office in Hollywood, replied that printed matter sent from Japan apparently was being censored, although there was no actual proof. Private individuals in the United States often found that newspapers and magazines from Japan had been delayed or confiscated entirely. In one instance photostatic copies had been made of Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire a Japanese official's private letters and diary.
After the Tachibana Incident, Japanese naval officials had been trailed and kept under surveillance, and since that time other Japanese nationals connected with the army and navy also had been watched. In spite of the fact that Captain Yutaka Ishikawa and Commander Sasaki of the Japanese navy had been subjected to an examination by customs officials before boarding the Otowasan Maru to return home, the FBI had also rigorously examined these officers.[639]
[634] III, 398.
[635] III, 399.
[636] Ibid.
[637] III, 400.
[638] III, 401.
[639] III, 402.
Furthermore, reports were to be made on warships and aircraft carriers at anchor, and although not so important, those tied up at wharves, buoys, and in docks. The types and classes of vessels were to be designated briefly and special mention was to be made when two or more vessels were alongside the same wharf.[584] Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
On September 29, 1941 the details of a special code to be used in referring to the location of American warships in Pearl Harbor was sent to Tokyo through diplomatic channels. "KS" meant the repair dock in the Navy yard; "FV" was the moorings in the vicinity of Ford Island; "FG" designated the location alongside Ford Island; and "A" and "B" indicated east and west sides of "FG" respectively.[585]
151. Japanese Report on American Transportation of English Troops
Consul Nagao Kita, on October 2, 1941, reported that an American steamship, possibly the Monterey from Australia, had entered port bearing approximately 600 Australians and New Zealand air corps troops under the command of Wing Commander Axel Richards. English language newspapermen stated that this was the first instance of an American ship being used to transport English troops.[586]
(e) Reports from South America
152. Japanese Interest in Brazilian Air Fields
The Japanese Foreign Minister, in a dispatch to Rio de Janeiro on September 29, 1941, asked that plans for landing fields on islands near Brazil be investigated and the information be sent to Tokyo at once.[587]
153. Minister Ishii Reports American Planes Arriving in Brazil
Japanese Minister Itaro Ishii in Rio de Janeiro informed Ambassador Nomura in Washington that the United States was dispatching weekly two large planes, each capable of carrying 62 persons, to Bathhurst in British Gambia. According to information gathered by Consul Ishii, plans were being made to dispatch by plane several thousand technicians, possibly including military officers.[588]
(f) Reports from Capetown, South Africa
154. Japanese Agents Reports the Transportation of British Soldiers
Two Japanese naval intelligence dispatches from Capetown, South Africa to Tokyo contained information concerning British vessels entering that port, and accordingly were retransmitted to Berlin. Approximately 8,000 British soldiers whose destination appeared to be Iran were embarked on five large transports, accompanied by a 7,000- or 8,000-ton cruiser, which had entered port on September 11, 1941 and sailed again September 14.
155. Japan Watches British Shipping Near Cape of Good Hope
As an aid to Russia, Britain was dispatching airplanes to the Eastern Front, along with aviators, extra machinery parts, gasoline, repair materials and technicians. Some of those were being transported via the White Sea and Murmansk, and part were being sent by the Cape route via Iran.[589]
[584] III, 356.
[585] III, 357.
[586] III, 358.
[587] III, 359.
[588] III, 360.
[589] III, 361.
[131]
Between September 16 and 21, 1941 seven British vessels were reported by Japanese spies to have entered Capetown for two-day stopovers. A camouflaged cruiser, on which a number of soldiers had embarked, and which appeared to be headed for Iran, entered port on September 18, and sailed on September 20, 1941.[590]
(g) Reports from Vladivostok, Russia
156. Departure of Russian Submarines
From Japanese diplomats in Vladivostok, came a ship movement report on September 4, 1941. It revealed that most of the Russian submarines seemed to have gone to sea, though their minesweepers were still engaging in strenuous daily practice. Detailed descriptions of the ships in the harbor and the arrival of a United States tanker on September 3, 1941 were reported.[591]
157. Japanese Learn of British Supply Route to Russia
On October 15, 1941 Japanese intelligence reports revealed that a tremendous amount of British supplies was being shipped to Russia through Capetown, Durban and Lourenco Marques. Aid to Russia via Iran had become difficult owing to a lack of docking facilities in the Persian Gulf, and because of poorly operated railroads in Iran. For this reason Russia and Great Britain had decided to appoint Brigadier General Sir Godfrey Dean Rhodes, then Director of Railways and Harbors in British Kenyauganda, to the position of Director of Transportation in Iran.[592]
[590] III, 362.
[591] III, 363.
[592] III, 364.
[132]
THE "MAGIC" BACKGROUND OF PEARL HARBOR
PART C—JAPANESE DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITIES THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
(a) Japanese-American Relations
158. Negotiations to Return American Missionaries to the United States Continue
In spite of the fact that on July 19, 1941 Ambassador Nomura had suggested the discontinuance of negotiations regarding the thirteen American missionaries in Korea, he wired on August 8, 1941 that, if Japanese government officials would permit, the Missionary Society was ready to return its representatives to the United States on furlough. He asked that this information be conveyed to the office of the Governor-General of Seoul, Capital of Chosen, for appropriate action.[593]
159. Japan Fears American and British Alliance with Russia[594]
Since Great Britain and America had already frozen Japanese funds and effected other retaliatory measures because of Japan's aggression into French Indo-China, the Japanese Military Attache in Washington warned his government, on August 9, 1941, that both these countries would take further action if Tokyo attempted to invade Siam. At the present time there were rumors of a meeting between President Roosevelt and Prime Minister Churchill on the Atlantic. It seemed evident by this increased British-American cooperation in Far Eastern affairs that once Japan entered Siam it would face war with the two allies.[595]
By strengthening its defenses in the Alaskan Aleutians the United States had also given clear indication of its growing interest in Russia. If Japan made any move to invade Siberia by force, American aid to Russia would not only increase, but economic and diplomatic relations between the United States and Japan would be completely severed. Even if war did not result, the Japanese Military Attache was certain that at least a severe commercial war would be waged by the United States against Japan.[596]
In view of this situation, the Japanese Military Attache, on August 9, 1941, suggested that Japan delay any northern advance until Russia's defeat by Germany. Once the Russo-German war was concluded, he felt certain that America's hostility toward Japan would lessen. On the other hand, there was always the possibility that the Russo-German war would be long and that as a result Great Britain, America and Russia would attempt to encircle and destroy Japan. In taking this possibility into consideration, the Japanese Military Attache warned that Tokyo should make preparations for dealing with even the most disadvantageous contingencies.[597] He explained that the reason American tankers were being sent to Russia by way of Vladivostok was because America had experienced great difficulty in finding another route by which to send aid. There were some indications that in the future American tankers would detour via Nikolaevsk.[598]
160. Inventory of Secret Funds in Japanese Legations
On August 11, 1941 the Japanese Ambassador in Washington transmitted an itemized account of special secret funds on hand in the Japanese Legations in the United States. Ap-
[593] III, 365.
[594] Information in this section did not become available until May, 1945.
[595] III, 366.
[596] Ibid.
[597] III, 367.
[598] III, 368. These messages were not translated until January and May 1945, respectively.
[133]
proximately $17,425 was contained in a secret fund for propaganda and intelligence purposes, and $20,556 was being held in a special fund in the name of the councilor. In the secret fund in San Francisco was $5,000, while the amounts on deposit in San Francisco and New York were $47,000 and $54,606 respectively.[599]
161. New Military Attache Appointed to Japanese Embassy
Meanwhile, on August 12, 1941 Foreign Minister Teijiro Toyoda in Tokyo informed Ambassador Nomura that Supply Officers Colonel Kenkichi Shinjo, Major Kita Yoshioka and Hinkai Ko had been appointed as assistant military attaches to the Legation in Washington. The United States government was to be informed of these appointments.[600]
162. Tokyo Reports Chinese Attempt to Draw United States into War against Japan
A strange situation was reported on August 13, 1941 in a dispatch retransmitted by Tokyo from Peking to Washington. According to the message, the Chungking faction in the North China area had ordered the assassination of American citizens in the hope that this would provoke the United States into entering the war. Since the Japanese militia in this area, the Harada Corps, had been forewarned, every precaution was now being taken to guard against any such mishap.
In spite of these precautions, threatening notes in the form of handbills had been scattered near the entrances of Christian Churches operated by Americans in Kaifeng, and five persons had broken into the Baptist Church threatening Americans with pistols and making away with cameras, papers and other such articles. Although the Harada Corps was investigating these incidents and was offering protection to all Americans in its jurisdiction, it was feared that in actuality the Americans were making preparations to evacuate the North China area.[601]
Furthermore, many cases of interference with American rights and interests in Japan and Japanese occupied areas of China had been reported. On August 13, 1941 Ambassador Nomura had submitted information to Tokyo from the State Department that Japanese authorities had undertaken widespread arbitrary activities against American official establishments. In North China, the travel of Americans, including American consular officials, was being stopped, restricted, or delayed. At Peitaiho, the transportation of baggage of Americans to the railway station was forbidden and the railway refused to receive baggage for checking. In Japan proper the travel of American citizens had been restricted so that Americans had been unable to obtain accommodations to Shanghai in returning to the United States.[602]
Other infringements upon the rights of American citizens and upon American institutions were reported from Tsingtao, Hwanghsien, Shantung, Tientsin, Foochow, Hsinan and Kobe. Such treatment of American diplomatic and consular officials, as well as American business representatives, at the hands of Japanese authorities or Japanese sponsored organizations was, in each case, seemingly without provocation. Unwarranted interference, rigid restrictions and control over the movements and activities of Americans were also reported at Swatow, Mukden, Fushun and Dairen. In one instance, the American Catholic Mission Sisters were permitted to visit the Consulate for passport services only on the condition that they would guarantee to return to Fushun the same day. Furthermore, when the Consul at Mukden had attempted to telephone to the Consul at Dairen, he was informed that he had "better cancel the call".[603]
[599] III, 369.
[600] III, 370.
[601] III, 371.
[602] III, 372.
[603] III, Ibid.
[134]
THE "MAGIC" BACKGROUND OF PEARL HARBOR
163. Mr. Malcolm Lovell Offers to Mediate between Japan and China
Ambassador Nomura reported on August 13, 1941 that the German Charge d'affaires, Mr. Thomsen, had called on Mr. Sadao Iguchi to request that the latter meet Mr. Malcolm Lovell, a New York banker, who was a close friend of Mr. Kuo Tai Chi, Chief of the Foreign Section of the Chungking government.[604] Mr. Thomsen had become acquainted with Mr. Lovell when the banker, who was interested in the relief work of the Quakers, had come to discuss Quaker activities in occupied France.
At the meeting of Mr. Iguchi and Mr. Lovell on August 13, 1941 Mr. Lovell spoke of his great friendship with Mr. Kuo Tai Chi ever since his college days, and discussed his interest as a Quaker in achieving peace. At the time Mr. Kuo Tai Chi had passed through the United States en route to his home from England, he had informed Mr. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire Lovell that peace between Japan and China would be welcomed under certain conditions.[605]
According to Mr. Kuo Tai Chi, a previous Japanese peace feeler had not reached the important authorities in the Chungking government. Since Mr. Lovell's Quaker background made him exceedingly anxious to bring about peace, and because of his very close relations with Mr. Kuo Tai Chi, he asked that he be advised as to the Japanese attitude concerning this matter.
When Mr. Iguchi asked when Mr. Lovell expected to get to Chungking, the banker replied that he had many friends in New York newspaper circles and he was confident of his ability to obtain a permit from the State Department as a special correspondent of one of these papers. He would then establish contact with the Japanese at some point, such as Hongkong. Though he was conscious that considerable difficulty would be encountered in finding terms acceptable to both sides, he felt confident that he could convey the respective opinions of the Japanese authorities and Chungking authorities to each other. Furthermore, if he failed, Japan would not be affected, since he was operating entirely on his own and had no intention of accepting any expenses.
Ambassador Nomura requested Foreign Minister Toyoda to decide whether or not the services of Mr. Lovell could be used, stating that Mr. Thomsen believed him to be a thoroughly reliable character.[606]
164. Japanese Foreign Office Asserts Its Authority in Foreign Relations
On August 15, 1941 Foreign Minister Toyoda instructed Ambassador Nomura that all questions regarding the resuming of sending Japanese ships to the United States should be dealt with by the Japanese Ambassador in Washington, or the Consul General in New York. These instructions were occasioned by a message from Financial Attache Tsutumu Nishiyama to the Minister of Finance in Tokyo.
The Foreign Office was concerned not only with the question of jurisdiction in such matters, but also disturbed because a message had not been sent in an Embassy code, which was a violation of their security instructions.[607]
165. Ambassador Nomura Suggests Suspension of Funds Pending Settlement of Financial Agreement
Proposing to pay Legation salaries out of cash on hand, Ambassador Nomura suggested on August 14, 1941 that remittances from Japan be temporarily postponed. Until such time as a general agreement was concluded between the United States and Japan, it would be impos-
[604] III, 373.
[605] Ibid.
[606] Ibid.
[607] III, 374.
[135]
sible to draw from government funds or to pay the salaries which were remitted from Japan. To discuss this financial situation with the Yokohama Specie Bank, Ambassador Nomura sent Mr. Hirome Hoside to New York.[608]
It will be remembered that the United States extended every facility to the Japanese diplomatic and consular organizations, assuring them permission to draw funds for the maintenance of their offices and for the subsistence and traveling expenses of their personnel.[609]
166. Freezing Order Curtails Japanese-American Trade
Foreseeing no way to make payment for the shipments of oil which Japan badly needed at this time, the Japanese Ambassador advised the exchange of raw silk for oil. It would be fine, he said, if Japan could find a way to make the freezing order ineffective, but it could neither expect much in this direction nor hope that the United States would apply frozen funds to pay for the oil.[610]
167. Ambassador Nomura Reports Indirect Participation of United States in the War Against Germany
As further proof that the United States was indirectly, if not directly, participating in the war on the side of the Allies, Mr. Nomura cited the statement made by the New York Times to the effect that if there were any indications that Soviet Russia was being defeated, the aircraft supplied to Russia should be stopped, since such material might fall eventually into German hands, that not even British and American military observers were permitted to watch the war, and as a result, a true picture of the German-Russian war could not be obtained.[611]
168. Japan Plans to Evacuate Nationals from the United States
Discussions were now being carried on between Japanese officials in American cities and in Mexico in regard to the evacuation of Japanese nationals in this area. Consul Yoshio Muto at San Francisco, in a circular dispatch transmitted August 16, 1941, said that first-generation Japanese who had established themselves in America and second-generation Japanese who had registered for military service were anxious to remain in the United States should a break in Japanese-American relations occur.
Consul Muto added that no indications of unrest were apparent even when such persons heard that Japanese ships on regular schedule were no longer to operate to the west coast. Since many first and second-generation Japanese were actually wavering in their intentions, the Japanese consulate at San Francisco was encouraging these persons through subsidized newspapers and organizations.
All Japanese persons connected with banks and companies with home offices in Japan, as well as others who were employed only in completing unfinished business, would be evacuated. It was imagined, Mr. Muto said, that Japanese residents who had become attached to the land would be dealt quite a blow when such evacuation took place. Therefore, all possible means were being taken to soften the blow.[612]
169. American Officials Search Japanese Business Offices in Los Angeles
An inspection of the NYK, Yokohama Specie Bank, the Sumitomo, the Mitsui, and the Mitsubishi branch offices in Los Angeles by four to seven Treasury Department and FBI officials was reported to Tokyo on August 18, 1941. A thorough and detailed inspection had been
[608] III, 375.
[609] III, 376.
[610] III, 377.
[611] III, 378.
[612] III, 379.
[136]
THE "MAGIC" BACKGROUND OF PEARL HARBOR
made in each office. Not only had the inspectors checked letters of private individuals, but photostatic copies had been made of several thousand documents, although the Sumitomo office had forbidden the photostating of its codes.[613]
Consul Kenji Nakauchi believed that the investigation had been conducted to determine the existence of "subversive acts" in spite of the fact that it was theoretically conducted in conjunction with the freezing order. Official employees of the Yokohama Specie office had been forbidden to enter their offices, or to leave, between 6:00 P.M. and 8:30 A.M. in order to prevent the burning of documents. It had been necessary, Consul Nakauchi disclosed, to secure the approval of the inspectors on all telegraphic communications received or dispatched.[614]
170. Evacuation Committee Meets on August 18, 1941 to Discuss Return of Missionaries
In answer to Ambassador Nomura's dispatch of August 8, 1941, Tokyo communicated a message from the Governor-General of Korea on August 19, 1941 to the effect that the evacuation committee of the Mission in Keijo had met on August 18, 1941 to determine whether the missionaries were to return to America. The Governor-General in Korea promised to keep Foreign Minister Toyoda informed as to the results of the meeting of the evacuation committee.[615]
171. The Japanese Embassy in Washington Reprimands the Tokyo Foreign Office
On August 19, 1941 Japanese representatives in Washington complained that during the past several years the Foreign Office had sent general instructions which did not take into consideration the general world situation and, therefore, missed the most essential points. It was suggested, therefore, that diplomatic matters be turned over to the investigation section for proper classification according to their importance so that the Embassy could dispose of the matters in the order of their urgency.[616]
172. Japan Recognizes Russo-German War as Threat to Its Border
On August 20, 1941 Tokyo replied to Ambassador Nomura's request for information concerning Japan's attitude toward the Russo-German war. While Tokyo did not feel able to predict the outcome of the Russo-German war, it took into consideration the possibility that Soviet Russia might lose the war with the result that the Stalin regime would disintegrate and far eastern Russia be thrown into political confusion.[617]
Moreover, it was necessary to consider that since part of Soviet Russia was adjacent to Japan and Manchukuo, Japan felt the necessity of taking precautionary measures to safeguard its national defense and security. There also remained the possibility of Soviet Russia's being influenced by a third power and consequently permitting the establishment of military bases in the maritime provinces of Siberia or in Kanchataka.
As a result, the Japanese government had decided to increase its forces in Manchukuo, and at the same time, to carry on negotiations in Tokyo with Russian officials in order to solve the various questions pertaining to this area. Tokyo was aware, however, that Russian officials had been warned to be cautious in their attitude toward the forces situated in Manchukuo.[618]
If this increase of Japanese troops in northern China should bring from the United States further demands for explanation by Japan, Ambassador Nomura was advised to impress upon
[613] III, 380.
[614] III, 381.
[615] III, 382.
[616] III, 383.
[617] III, 384. See Section 23, Part A, Rumors Of a British-American-Russian Peace Conference Speed Japanese Action.
[618] Ibid.
[137]
the American government that the troop movement was purely a precautionary measure designed to forestall any unforeseen emergency which would disturb peace in the Far East. To an inquiry from the Russian Ambassador in Tokyo regarding this matter the Japanese Foreign Minister had assured the Russian government that Japan would live up to the Neutrality Pact "as long as Russia did". The Soviet Ambassador was satisfied with this reply.[619]
The Tokyo Foreign Office also requested Ambassador Nomura to call the attention of the United States' authorities to the fact that shipping war materials from the United States to Russia by way of Japanese coastal waters would have an unfavorable effect on the already unstable Japanese-American relations. The Japanese Foreign Minister had already explained the situation to Ambassador Joseph C. Grew in Tokyo.[620]
173. Consul Morishima Suggests Further Precautions to Ensure Secrecy of Dispatches
Asking that the Japanese Ambassador in Washington investigate the telegraphic situation, Consul Morito Morishima in New York protested that the Western Union Telegraph Company had returned one of his dispatches which had been sent to Vancouver. Furthermore, since code messages from the Consulate apparently had been prohibited, requests for transmissions must have been received from Japanese Consulates in Canada.[621]
174. Change Predicted in Japanese American Relations
The Japanese finance officer, Mr. Nishiyama, in a confidential interview on August 21, 1941, was told to expect a change in Japanese-American relations within the next ten days. This change would depend upon the attitude that Japan took during this time.[626]
175. Washington Warns Tokyo of Security Violation
Since Tokyo had requested information regarding American treatment of Japanese officials in connection with all branches of communications, asset freezing, travel and surveillance of diplomatic and consular officers, Ambassador Nomura disseminated the instructions of the Foreign Office as directed. However, as a precautionary measure, he first carefully paraphrased and then encoded these instructions. On August 22, 1941 Ambassador Nomura warned Tokyo that a close watch should be maintained in guarding code secrecy.[627]
177. Japanese Authorities Express Concern over United States' Official Inspection
On August 23, 1941 Financial Attache Tsutumu Nishiyama in Tokyo wired his opinion regarding the bank inspection conducted by the Treasury Department officials and F.B.I. men. He believed that the American inspection came closer to being a search for "subversive acts" rather than an inspection connected with the freezing order.
Influential persons in the Specie Bank, greatly concerned, asked that an investigation be conducted to ascertain the real purpose of the inspection of American officials.[629]
178. Japan Reports Anti-Japanese Activities among American Missionaries in China
A supplementary report on American missionaries in China was sent to Washington by Tokyo on August 25, 1941. Upon investigation, the Japanese professed to have learned that the Church had taken in sixteen wounded enemy troops, many enemy spies and Communists, and had hid them on the church premises. It was further alleged that church officials were
[619] III, 385.
[620] Ibid.
[621] III, 386.
[626] III, 391.
[627] III, 392.
[629] III, 394.
[138]
THE "MAGIC" BACKGROUND OF PEARL HARBOR
sending undercover reports to the enemy and were participating in enemy-like activities. As a result of these findings, nine persons, including missionaries, were confined in a house adjoining the church hospital and kept under surveillance.
Deciding, in view of the critical times, to act with special leniency, the Japanese military command asked Mr. James N. Montgomery, who was responsible for the Americans, to sign a pledge that the Americans would not take part in any similar activities in the future. Consequently, the American citizens were released and the watch removed.[630]
In spite of this expression of Japanese friendliness, the church officials were circulating rumors to the effect that a certain Chinese patient who had died of illness in the hospital, had been murdered by the Japanese.[631]
179. Japan Attempts Disposal of Certain Frozen Funds
On August 25, 1941 the Chief of the Financial Bureau in Tokyo replied to Finance Attache Nishiyama's query concerning United States bonds in Japanese banks in the United States. If turned over secretly to the Japanese Financial Attache, Ambassador or Consul, Tokyo believed that those bonds of which the United States was unaware, could be easily disposed of without the owner's loss of title. When such a method was used, the Japanese official to whom they were entrusted was to issue a receipt giving all the information necessary to identify them. A certified list of these bonds was then to be sent to the Finance Minister in Japan who would in turn make yen payments on principal and interest.
In order to prevent the United States' officials from learning of this plan, deliveries of such certified lists were to be made by Foreign Office couriers. On the other hand, those bonds known to United States officials necessarily would be frozen. No other course could be pursued in such a case since any minor incident at this time could considerably endanger any Japanese-American negotiations.[632]
180. Japan Learns Details of Churchill-Roosevelt Agreement
A report of the Russian Peoples Commissar for Foreign Affairs which had been sent to various Russian representatives in the Orient was authorized by the Japanese government on August 25, 1941. It discussed the terms agreed upon during the present Roosevelt-Churchill conference, and said that in order to ensure the support of American public opinion in sending aid to Great Britain, President Roosevelt had stated that British war aims must be clarified. Churchill had cited the exhaustion and the anti-war sentiment prevalent in British dominions and among the laboring classes, and for these reasons had requested positive aid from America.
America had promised aid in the event of a Japanese attack upon Australia, Burma or the Netherlands East Indies and had agreed to an expansion of the economic war against Japan. American aid was also guaranteed in the Near East in case Germany invaded the Caucasus. Furthermore, the United States extended to Great Britain a grant for military aid and promised American participation against German submarine warfare.[633]
181. American Newspapermen in Italy Forecast Axis Defeat
Word came to the Japanese Embassy in Washington on August 25, 1941 that American newspapermen in Rome were highly pleased with developments in the international situation. They believed that American aid to Britain and Russia would gradually strengthen the en-
[630] III, 395.
[631] Ibid.
[632] III, 396.
[633] III, 397.
[139]
circlement of the European continent, and that the German and Italian armies in North Africa would be cut off from their home countries. They also believed that American aid in the future would be sent by way of Dakar, Bathurst, British Gambia, Basra, Singapore and the Suez.[634]
182. Minister Sakaya Criticizes American Aid to Russia
A report to Tokyo from Minister Tadashi Sakaya concerning a conversation with Hans Frederick Schoenfield, the American Minister in Helsinki, Finland was relayed to Ambassador Nomura in Washington. According to the report, Minister Sakaya had argued that the United States' support of Russia, a country diametrically opposed to the democratic principle, was peculiar.[635]
The American Minister replied that, although he had received no detailed reports from Washington, he imagined that his country considered it essential to support Russia against a greater threat. Furthermore, from the standpoint of the United States, Bolshevism could not constitute a very great threat to other nations because of the tribulation which Russia had suffered in the last ten years.[636]
183. Minister Schoenfield Clarifies American Policy
In answer to a remark concerning the absurdity of the United States' meddling in the affairs of Europe and Asia while adhering to the policy of the Monroe Doctrine, Minister Sakaya was informed by Mr. Schoenfield that though foreign countries were not permitted to seize control of any part of the American continents, the United States did not wish to control any country therein. However, should Germany attempt to contravene the principle of self-determination, which would shatter the foundations of peace between the old and new worlds and upset the economic equilibrium, the United States intended to prevent such action.[637]
The American Minister added that the bad relations between the United States and Japan would probably soon improve and that, as long as the leaders of the two countries continued to negotiate, there was a good chance for a composure of relations between the two countries.[638]
184. Japan Inquires About American Treatment of Japanese Nationals
As relations between Japan and the United States grew steadily worse, Tokyo asked Washington for a report on the methods used by the United States in handling Japanese nationals, since it intended to draw up a reply to an American protest against Japan's control of foreign business in Tokyo.
On August 26, 1941, Mr. Kenji Nakauchi, of the Japanese office in Hollywood, replied that printed matter sent from Japan apparently was being censored, although there was no actual proof. Private individuals in the United States often found that newspapers and magazines from Japan had been delayed or confiscated entirely. In one instance photostatic copies had been made of Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire a Japanese official's private letters and diary.
After the Tachibana Incident, Japanese naval officials had been trailed and kept under surveillance, and since that time other Japanese nationals connected with the army and navy also had been watched. In spite of the fact that Captain Yutaka Ishikawa and Commander Sasaki of the Japanese navy had been subjected to an examination by customs officials before boarding the Otowasan Maru to return home, the FBI had also rigorously examined these officers.[639]
[634] III, 398.
[635] III, 399.
[636] Ibid.
[637] III, 400.
[638] III, 401.
[639] III, 402.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
medical problems 9.lem.q Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
A substance found in red wine and touted as the chemical equivalent of the fountain of youth probably acts more like a wellspring of health — with warning signs.
Resveratrol, as the chemical is known, does a pretty good job of mimicking some age-defying effects found in studies of animals on calorie-restricted diets. But the substance doesn’t make animals live longer, a new study shows. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
At the same time, boosting levels of a key enzyme thought to be responsible for resveratrol action and for the life-extending properties of calorie restriction does protect mice fed high-fat diets from heart problems.
But a third group of researchers warns that more activity of the enzyme, called SirT1, may make brain cells vulnerable to damage.
Some scientists are optimistic that in the near future a pill with resveratrol or something like it could provide the health benefits of a very low-calorie diet. But the new research indicates the drug and the diet regimen don’t necessarily work the same way.
“You have to carefully study the reality, and the reality is, it’s complicated,” says Valter Longo, a molecular geneticist at the University of Southern California’s Andrus Gerontology Center.
For instance, two new studies show that each organ in the body may react differently to calorie restriction, to chemical mimics such as resveratrol, or to different actions of key proteins involved in controlling aging.
Those proteins, called sirtuins, are a group of enzymes found in organisms from bacteria to humans, which have been shown to regulate aging in yeast, roundworms and fruit flies. The proteins were named for the yeast protein Sir2, the first member of the family discovered.
Increasing levels of the mouse sirtuin, SirT1, prevents mice from developing heart problems and fatty livers even when they are fed high-fat diets, researchers at the University of Cincinnati College of Medicine and the Spanish National Cancer Research Center in Madrid reported June 30 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. These mice with higher levels of SirT1 eat more but also burn more calories than do mice with normal levels of the enzyme.
But Longo’s group reported in the July Cell Metabolism that SirT1 may affect the brain differently. Neurons grown in the laboratory were sensitive to oxidative damage when they made normal amounts of SirT1, but reducing the amount of the enzyme helped the brain cells better resist stress.
“This is backwards,” says Leonard Guarente, a molecular and cellular biologist at MIT. Sirtuins are generally thought to protect cells against oxidative damage believed to play a part in aging. Guarente was not involved in any of the current studies, but his lab pioneered studying aging in yeast. “It’s intriguing, but it will take a little more time to figure out what it means in the context of other evidence to the contrary,” he says.
Mice can’t dispense with SirT1 entirely, though. Longo’s group found that mice from which the SirT1 gene was removed entirely died young. Calorie restriction did not lengthen their lives as it does for yeast lacking the similar gene, Sir2.
If SirT1 really makes neurons vulnerable, that’s potentially bad news for resveratrol. The chemical is found in small amounts in grapes, red wine and other foods and is thought to be the component in red wine responsible for the “French paradox” —in which people who eat a high-fat diet are protected from heart disease by consuming wine. Resveratrol has been shown to keep obese mice healthy enough to live a normal life-span (for a mouse). It has been thought to work in the same way as calorie restriction — by activating sirtuins. Sirtuins then modify other proteins, which, in turn, regulate genes involved in inflammation, immunity, stress responses and other processes of aging.
Indeed, an international group of researchers led by Rafael de Cabo at the U.S. National Institute on Aging reported in the July Cell Metabolism that mice fed resveratrol had similar patterns of gene activity as mice fed only every other day. The resveratrol-treated mice had better bone health, less cataract formation and improved coordination compared with other mice their age. Resveratrol also lowered the mice’s cholesterol and made their hearts function better compared with aged mice fed a standard diet. The findings echo others showing the health benefits of calorie restriction and of increased levels of SirT1.
Unfortunately, “the health benefits resveratrol gives these mice are not the things they are dying of,” de Cabo says. Mice generally die of cancer, not heart disease the way humans do. The mice don’t live longer when given resveratrol probably because the chemical doesn’t fight cancer the way calorie restriction seems to.
So far, resveratrol has shown no toxic side effects either in animal or human studies, de Cabo says. And while he takes Longo’s findings seriously, he says resveratrol is likely to have other actions besides just increasing SirT1 activity.
In fact, Tomas Prolla of the University of Wisconsin–Madison and colleagues suggest that resveratrol doesn’t work through SirT1 at all. In a paper published June 4 in PLoS ONE, Prolla’s group reports that resveratrol mimics some of the effects of calorie restriction, but works differently in some crucial ways, such as in how it regulates glucose uptake by muscles. That process is important in the development of diabetes and other medical problems. The compound did not prevent or slow down tumors in the mice.
But the group demonstrated that even at very low doses, resveratrol is a powerful protector of the heart.
To achieve extension of the maximum human life-span, though, scientists will have to develop a way to prevent cancer too, because “humans, like mice, under normal conditions do develop tumors as a consequence of aging,” Prolla says.
But he is optimistic. “I have no doubt the aging process will be understood at the molecular level and we can do something about it,” Prolla says.
Resveratrol, as the chemical is known, does a pretty good job of mimicking some age-defying effects found in studies of animals on calorie-restricted diets. But the substance doesn’t make animals live longer, a new study shows. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
At the same time, boosting levels of a key enzyme thought to be responsible for resveratrol action and for the life-extending properties of calorie restriction does protect mice fed high-fat diets from heart problems.
But a third group of researchers warns that more activity of the enzyme, called SirT1, may make brain cells vulnerable to damage.
Some scientists are optimistic that in the near future a pill with resveratrol or something like it could provide the health benefits of a very low-calorie diet. But the new research indicates the drug and the diet regimen don’t necessarily work the same way.
“You have to carefully study the reality, and the reality is, it’s complicated,” says Valter Longo, a molecular geneticist at the University of Southern California’s Andrus Gerontology Center.
For instance, two new studies show that each organ in the body may react differently to calorie restriction, to chemical mimics such as resveratrol, or to different actions of key proteins involved in controlling aging.
Those proteins, called sirtuins, are a group of enzymes found in organisms from bacteria to humans, which have been shown to regulate aging in yeast, roundworms and fruit flies. The proteins were named for the yeast protein Sir2, the first member of the family discovered.
Increasing levels of the mouse sirtuin, SirT1, prevents mice from developing heart problems and fatty livers even when they are fed high-fat diets, researchers at the University of Cincinnati College of Medicine and the Spanish National Cancer Research Center in Madrid reported June 30 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. These mice with higher levels of SirT1 eat more but also burn more calories than do mice with normal levels of the enzyme.
But Longo’s group reported in the July Cell Metabolism that SirT1 may affect the brain differently. Neurons grown in the laboratory were sensitive to oxidative damage when they made normal amounts of SirT1, but reducing the amount of the enzyme helped the brain cells better resist stress.
“This is backwards,” says Leonard Guarente, a molecular and cellular biologist at MIT. Sirtuins are generally thought to protect cells against oxidative damage believed to play a part in aging. Guarente was not involved in any of the current studies, but his lab pioneered studying aging in yeast. “It’s intriguing, but it will take a little more time to figure out what it means in the context of other evidence to the contrary,” he says.
Mice can’t dispense with SirT1 entirely, though. Longo’s group found that mice from which the SirT1 gene was removed entirely died young. Calorie restriction did not lengthen their lives as it does for yeast lacking the similar gene, Sir2.
If SirT1 really makes neurons vulnerable, that’s potentially bad news for resveratrol. The chemical is found in small amounts in grapes, red wine and other foods and is thought to be the component in red wine responsible for the “French paradox” —in which people who eat a high-fat diet are protected from heart disease by consuming wine. Resveratrol has been shown to keep obese mice healthy enough to live a normal life-span (for a mouse). It has been thought to work in the same way as calorie restriction — by activating sirtuins. Sirtuins then modify other proteins, which, in turn, regulate genes involved in inflammation, immunity, stress responses and other processes of aging.
Indeed, an international group of researchers led by Rafael de Cabo at the U.S. National Institute on Aging reported in the July Cell Metabolism that mice fed resveratrol had similar patterns of gene activity as mice fed only every other day. The resveratrol-treated mice had better bone health, less cataract formation and improved coordination compared with other mice their age. Resveratrol also lowered the mice’s cholesterol and made their hearts function better compared with aged mice fed a standard diet. The findings echo others showing the health benefits of calorie restriction and of increased levels of SirT1.
Unfortunately, “the health benefits resveratrol gives these mice are not the things they are dying of,” de Cabo says. Mice generally die of cancer, not heart disease the way humans do. The mice don’t live longer when given resveratrol probably because the chemical doesn’t fight cancer the way calorie restriction seems to.
So far, resveratrol has shown no toxic side effects either in animal or human studies, de Cabo says. And while he takes Longo’s findings seriously, he says resveratrol is likely to have other actions besides just increasing SirT1 activity.
In fact, Tomas Prolla of the University of Wisconsin–Madison and colleagues suggest that resveratrol doesn’t work through SirT1 at all. In a paper published June 4 in PLoS ONE, Prolla’s group reports that resveratrol mimics some of the effects of calorie restriction, but works differently in some crucial ways, such as in how it regulates glucose uptake by muscles. That process is important in the development of diabetes and other medical problems. The compound did not prevent or slow down tumors in the mice.
But the group demonstrated that even at very low doses, resveratrol is a powerful protector of the heart.
To achieve extension of the maximum human life-span, though, scientists will have to develop a way to prevent cancer too, because “humans, like mice, under normal conditions do develop tumors as a consequence of aging,” Prolla says.
But he is optimistic. “I have no doubt the aging process will be understood at the molecular level and we can do something about it,” Prolla says.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
pylori 4.pyl.3 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
Children infected with a common stomach bacterium are less likely to have asthma than other kids, according to a study that will appear in the Aug. 15 Journal of Infectious Diseases.
The bug in question, Helicobacter pylori, is a microbe with a history like no other. A longtime resident of the human stomach, H. pylori went largely undetected until Australian scientists discovered it in 1979 and went on to show that it can cause stomach ulcers. Further work has linked it to stomach cancer. It’s now treated with antibiotics whenever detected.
Because H. pylori had been hitchhiking in humans for so long — possibly 50,000 years or more — microbiologist Martin Blaser of New York University became interested in the possible consequences of knocking it out.
He suspected that widespread antibiotic use has been suppressing H. pylori infections in industrialized countries over the past half century. During that same time, asthma has increased markedly.
Blaser and his colleague Yu Chen analyzed a database of health information obtained from people who enrolled in a national health study in either 1999 or 2000. The researchers focused on children, identifying 4,787 who didn’t have an H. pylori infection upon entering the study and 2,625 others who did. Questionnaires completed by study participants (or their parents) showed that children ages 3 to 13 with H. pylori were less than half as likely to have had asthma as were kids without an H. pylori infection.
Children with H. pylori were even less likely to have had, in the previous year, a bout of allergic rhinitis, which is marked by a runny nose, itchy eyes and inflamed nasal passages. And they were less apt to suffer from wheezing, the researchers report.
Blaser cautions that the association does not prove that an H. pylori infection prevents asthma, a chronic condition in which lung passages can become inflamed by contact with an allergen, smoke, pet dander or any number of other substances. Like allergies, asthma is an overreaction of the immune system to an innocuous substance.
Nevertheless, it’s possible that an H. pylori infection might somehow quell the immune system, Blaser says, or more likely induce the production of compounds that do. Or, H. pylori might just be a marker of something else that protects against asthma, he says.
It’s unclear how H. pylori spreads, but children living in messier households could have more H. pylori infections, says gastroenterologist David Graham of the Baylor College of Medicine and at the Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, both in Houston. Thus, its apparent antiasthma effect might actually result from poor hygiene, he says.
Under a school of thought called the hygiene hypothesis, children who grow up in squeaky clean environments have more asthma and allergies than do kids raised in contact with farm animals or in other less sanitary conditions. The idea is that the immune systems of children in messy environments get regular challenges and thus mature properly.
Even if H. pylori did prevent asthma, the infection is not worth having, Graham says. “One would not allow king cobras to live in one’s house just because they might eat rats,” he says. “H. pylori is a king cobra equivalent in terms of the harm done to humans.”
Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire Patients would be better served if doctors could find a way to condition the immune system to achieve the effect of a dirty environment without the negative consequences, Graham says.
The bug in question, Helicobacter pylori, is a microbe with a history like no other. A longtime resident of the human stomach, H. pylori went largely undetected until Australian scientists discovered it in 1979 and went on to show that it can cause stomach ulcers. Further work has linked it to stomach cancer. It’s now treated with antibiotics whenever detected.
Because H. pylori had been hitchhiking in humans for so long — possibly 50,000 years or more — microbiologist Martin Blaser of New York University became interested in the possible consequences of knocking it out.
He suspected that widespread antibiotic use has been suppressing H. pylori infections in industrialized countries over the past half century. During that same time, asthma has increased markedly.
Blaser and his colleague Yu Chen analyzed a database of health information obtained from people who enrolled in a national health study in either 1999 or 2000. The researchers focused on children, identifying 4,787 who didn’t have an H. pylori infection upon entering the study and 2,625 others who did. Questionnaires completed by study participants (or their parents) showed that children ages 3 to 13 with H. pylori were less than half as likely to have had asthma as were kids without an H. pylori infection.
Children with H. pylori were even less likely to have had, in the previous year, a bout of allergic rhinitis, which is marked by a runny nose, itchy eyes and inflamed nasal passages. And they were less apt to suffer from wheezing, the researchers report.
Blaser cautions that the association does not prove that an H. pylori infection prevents asthma, a chronic condition in which lung passages can become inflamed by contact with an allergen, smoke, pet dander or any number of other substances. Like allergies, asthma is an overreaction of the immune system to an innocuous substance.
Nevertheless, it’s possible that an H. pylori infection might somehow quell the immune system, Blaser says, or more likely induce the production of compounds that do. Or, H. pylori might just be a marker of something else that protects against asthma, he says.
It’s unclear how H. pylori spreads, but children living in messier households could have more H. pylori infections, says gastroenterologist David Graham of the Baylor College of Medicine and at the Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, both in Houston. Thus, its apparent antiasthma effect might actually result from poor hygiene, he says.
Under a school of thought called the hygiene hypothesis, children who grow up in squeaky clean environments have more asthma and allergies than do kids raised in contact with farm animals or in other less sanitary conditions. The idea is that the immune systems of children in messy environments get regular challenges and thus mature properly.
Even if H. pylori did prevent asthma, the infection is not worth having, Graham says. “One would not allow king cobras to live in one’s house just because they might eat rats,” he says. “H. pylori is a king cobra equivalent in terms of the harm done to humans.”
Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire Patients would be better served if doctors could find a way to condition the immune system to achieve the effect of a dirty environment without the negative consequences, Graham says.
Monday, May 4, 2009
news 9.new.23 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
When doctors are looking to treat an illness, they often rely on reports in medical journals. Sometimes those reports describe striking successes with a particular therapy. Less frequently, they highlight failures. To physicians, learning what doesn’t work or has troubling side effects can be as important as knowing which therapies hit a home run.
Yet doctors — and the reporters who highlight research news — are getting a very skewed picture of research findings if they rely on what makes it into major medical journals.
The reason: Data from fewer than one in five research trials are ever published. Findings from the vast majority of human trials become buried for reasons that may never come to light, according to a new study in The Oncologist. It’s published early and online September 24.
For the past nine years, the National Institutes of Health have maintained a registry of medical trials. Researchers must list theirs with this ClinicalTrials.gov registry. If they don’t, major medical journals (those that belong to the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors) will not publish the trial’s findings.
Scott Ramsey and John Scoggins of the University of Washington, Seattle, scoured that registry for any trial that was supposed to have been conducted to gauge the effectiveness of cancer treatments — and turned up 2,028. The pair then cross-checked these trials against all published studies that were listed in PubMed, a comprehensive database compiled by the National Library of Medicine. http://LOUIS2J2SHEEHAN.US PubMed includes citations to all medical and related studies that have been published in peer-reviewed journals.
Among the cancer trials that were identified as completed or halted as of a year ago, just 17.6 percent were ultimately published in PubMed-listed journals, Ramsey and Scoggins report.
Okay, maybe the halted trials were pulled because of what turned out to be poor research design, failure to recruit enough patients, or some other reasonable issue. But even after restricting the analysis to only those trials that were completed, the share that ended up being published still amounted to fewer than one in five.
Who conducted a trial seemed to influence the likelihood its data would see the light of day. Studies sponsored by industry (such as drug companies) had the lowest publication rate: 5.9 percent. By comparison, data from 59 percent of studies performed by clinical-trial networks were published.
Ramsey and Scoggins turned up 341 cancer trials from the registry that were published. Of these, two-thirds reported positive — expected and beneficial — findings.
The new analysis raises the ugly specter of publication bias, its authors say. The assumption is that many if not most unpublished trials involved treatments that didn’t work. “Of particular concern,” they argue, is the especially poor showing by industry-sponsored trials, since they tended to probe the value of patented drugs — “many of which are in clinical use.”
James H. Doroshow, director of the National Cancer Institute’s division of treatment and diagnosis, notes that last year alone some 50,000 patients took part in trials that his institute funded. The “apparent lack of access to the final efficacy and toxicity data for cancer clinical trials from all sponsors, but especially for industry-sponsored studies, poses multiple scientific and ethical questions,” he charges in an editorial accompanying the new paper.
For instance, as doctors begin developing novel chemotherapy cocktails — mixtures of drugs initially tested on their own — toxic reactions may emerge. It’s imperative, Doroshow says, that inklings of such side effects be communicated immediately “to the entire oncology community in the peer-reviewed literature.”
Moreover, he notes that some drug-safety trials did not publish their findings, or did not do so early enough, such that they could inform subsequent trials. This practice is not likely to continue, he points out, since new federal rules will fine investigators who fail to post outcome data for all trials getting money from Uncle Sam. Moreover, for cancer trials, NCI will require that researchers begin reporting outcome data — treatment successes and failures — throughout the course of the trial, not just at the end.
A second editorial, this one by The Oncologist’s senior editor, Gregory A. Curt (an employee of drug company AstraZeneca), and editor-in-chief Bruce A. Chabner (of Harvard Medical School) find the new analysis by Ramsey and Scoggins “thought-provoking and disturbing.” At a minimum, they argue, publication of trial data should be considered “an obligation” for any researchers recruiting patients who contribute “their precious time and well-being, and for some, their very lives.”
This is especially true for drug-company trials, they contend, since “industry has become the dominant sponsor of new drug trials.”
But Curt and Chabner also suspect that part of the problem illustrated in the new paper traces to issues other than a drug company’s interest in hiding bad data.
For instance, study authors “face the hurdle of finding a journal willing to publish a negative, poorly designed or inadequately accruing trial.” This is especially true, they say, since “Journals live and die based on their Impact Factor” — how often they’re cited by subsequent papers. Any journal filled with such findings would “not attract readership, citations and advertisement,” they write.
One solution Curt and Chabner propose: Make NCI funding for new trials dependent on the investigators’ past track record of getting their trials data — both positive and negative — published. They also argue that there’s “a need for a new venue” to record outcomes of well-executed but ultimately negative clinical trials. This database must be searchable via PubMed and other search engines. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire Currently, these editors note, The Oncologist is considering whether it should become a repository for such cancer data.
Bottom line: It should become increasingly harder for drug companies and others to bury embarrassing findings. But the impacts of coming changes might not show up for five years or more. In the mean time, let’s hope our research-funding agencies, our hospitals and our doctors don’t assume that when it comes to trial data, no news is good news.
Yet doctors — and the reporters who highlight research news — are getting a very skewed picture of research findings if they rely on what makes it into major medical journals.
The reason: Data from fewer than one in five research trials are ever published. Findings from the vast majority of human trials become buried for reasons that may never come to light, according to a new study in The Oncologist. It’s published early and online September 24.
For the past nine years, the National Institutes of Health have maintained a registry of medical trials. Researchers must list theirs with this ClinicalTrials.gov registry. If they don’t, major medical journals (those that belong to the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors) will not publish the trial’s findings.
Scott Ramsey and John Scoggins of the University of Washington, Seattle, scoured that registry for any trial that was supposed to have been conducted to gauge the effectiveness of cancer treatments — and turned up 2,028. The pair then cross-checked these trials against all published studies that were listed in PubMed, a comprehensive database compiled by the National Library of Medicine. http://LOUIS2J2SHEEHAN.US PubMed includes citations to all medical and related studies that have been published in peer-reviewed journals.
Among the cancer trials that were identified as completed or halted as of a year ago, just 17.6 percent were ultimately published in PubMed-listed journals, Ramsey and Scoggins report.
Okay, maybe the halted trials were pulled because of what turned out to be poor research design, failure to recruit enough patients, or some other reasonable issue. But even after restricting the analysis to only those trials that were completed, the share that ended up being published still amounted to fewer than one in five.
Who conducted a trial seemed to influence the likelihood its data would see the light of day. Studies sponsored by industry (such as drug companies) had the lowest publication rate: 5.9 percent. By comparison, data from 59 percent of studies performed by clinical-trial networks were published.
Ramsey and Scoggins turned up 341 cancer trials from the registry that were published. Of these, two-thirds reported positive — expected and beneficial — findings.
The new analysis raises the ugly specter of publication bias, its authors say. The assumption is that many if not most unpublished trials involved treatments that didn’t work. “Of particular concern,” they argue, is the especially poor showing by industry-sponsored trials, since they tended to probe the value of patented drugs — “many of which are in clinical use.”
James H. Doroshow, director of the National Cancer Institute’s division of treatment and diagnosis, notes that last year alone some 50,000 patients took part in trials that his institute funded. The “apparent lack of access to the final efficacy and toxicity data for cancer clinical trials from all sponsors, but especially for industry-sponsored studies, poses multiple scientific and ethical questions,” he charges in an editorial accompanying the new paper.
For instance, as doctors begin developing novel chemotherapy cocktails — mixtures of drugs initially tested on their own — toxic reactions may emerge. It’s imperative, Doroshow says, that inklings of such side effects be communicated immediately “to the entire oncology community in the peer-reviewed literature.”
Moreover, he notes that some drug-safety trials did not publish their findings, or did not do so early enough, such that they could inform subsequent trials. This practice is not likely to continue, he points out, since new federal rules will fine investigators who fail to post outcome data for all trials getting money from Uncle Sam. Moreover, for cancer trials, NCI will require that researchers begin reporting outcome data — treatment successes and failures — throughout the course of the trial, not just at the end.
A second editorial, this one by The Oncologist’s senior editor, Gregory A. Curt (an employee of drug company AstraZeneca), and editor-in-chief Bruce A. Chabner (of Harvard Medical School) find the new analysis by Ramsey and Scoggins “thought-provoking and disturbing.” At a minimum, they argue, publication of trial data should be considered “an obligation” for any researchers recruiting patients who contribute “their precious time and well-being, and for some, their very lives.”
This is especially true for drug-company trials, they contend, since “industry has become the dominant sponsor of new drug trials.”
But Curt and Chabner also suspect that part of the problem illustrated in the new paper traces to issues other than a drug company’s interest in hiding bad data.
For instance, study authors “face the hurdle of finding a journal willing to publish a negative, poorly designed or inadequately accruing trial.” This is especially true, they say, since “Journals live and die based on their Impact Factor” — how often they’re cited by subsequent papers. Any journal filled with such findings would “not attract readership, citations and advertisement,” they write.
One solution Curt and Chabner propose: Make NCI funding for new trials dependent on the investigators’ past track record of getting their trials data — both positive and negative — published. They also argue that there’s “a need for a new venue” to record outcomes of well-executed but ultimately negative clinical trials. This database must be searchable via PubMed and other search engines. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire Currently, these editors note, The Oncologist is considering whether it should become a repository for such cancer data.
Bottom line: It should become increasingly harder for drug companies and others to bury embarrassing findings. But the impacts of coming changes might not show up for five years or more. In the mean time, let’s hope our research-funding agencies, our hospitals and our doctors don’t assume that when it comes to trial data, no news is good news.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
research 9.res.0002 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
The supplement Ginkgo biloba has failed to ward off Alzheimer’s disease or other forms of dementia any better than a placebo in a long-term trial, researchers report in the Nov. 19 Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).
“This is tremendously disappointing,” says study coauthor Steven DeKosky, a neurologist at the University of Virginia School of Medicine in Charlottesville.
DeKosky has good reason to feel let down. In earlier laboratory tests, ginkgo extract showed an ability to protect brain cells from the very sort of problems that occur in Alzheimer’s patients. In animal tests, the herb inhibited the clumping — or formation of plaques — of the protein amyloid-beta. These plaques are widely assumed to play a role in Alzheimer’s. Ginkgo also has antioxidant properties, further boosting its appeal.
But the new, eight-year study, the largest clinical trial ever specifically designed to test a drug or supplement for Alzheimer’s prevention, casts serious doubt on ginkgo’s usefulness. European researchers are now conducting a similar trial and are likely to present data in a year or so, DeKosky says. If those findings are also negative, he says, “That would clinch it.”
Starting in 2000, DeKosky and his colleagues randomly assigned more than 3,000 people, average age 79, to receive two ginkgopills a day or placebo pills. All participants were free of Alzheimer’s disease or other dementia at the start, but roughly one in six in each group began the study with some mild cognitive impairment. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire DeKosky worked on the trial while at the University of Pittsburgh.
The researchers tracked the volunteers’ progress until 2008. The participants were instructed to show up for visits at assigned clinics every six months for assessment. Each also had a partner to ensure attendance at the checkups, DeKosky says.
After an average follow-up of six years, roughly equal numbers of people taking ginkgo and people taking placebos had developed dementia, which in the vast majority of cases was Alzheimer’s disease.
The study wasn’t designed to measure cognitive gains or losses other than the dementia diagnosis, leaving open the question of whether ginkgohelped any of the volunteers’ memory in everyday activities. The supplement is also used by people hoping to promote everyday memory gains. But, says physician Lon Schneider of the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, “it is unlikely that a trial with no difference in dementia outcomes would yield significant benefit in the cognitive and functional impairment that define the dementia.” Writing in the same JAMA issue, Schneider says the new study “adds to the substantial body of evidence that G. biloba extract as it is generally used does not prevent dementia.”
Although this large trial was conducted over several years, it leaves some questions unanswered, says Barry Oken, a neurologist at the Oregon Health & Science University in Portland. The doses of ginkgoused were far smaller, pound-for-pound, than those that showed effectiveness in animal models, he says. And some of the data quality might have suffered because it is difficult to ascertain whether people were actually taking their pills, he says.
At each six-month visit, participants brought in their empty plastic pill packages. DeKosky acknowledged that there was no way to verify that the volunteers took all their pills. “But the majority of old folks are already taking medications,” he says. Participants probably put the study pills in the same weekly pill boxes they use for their regular medications and thus would be unlikely to forget to take a dose.
Other popular over-the-counter supplements such as fish oil, omega-3 fatty acids and resveratrol are being tested in large trials or are under consideration for them. Although trials that assess long-term prevention are expensive — the recent study cost $30 million — they are the only reliable way to test products against Alzheimer’s and other slow-developing diseases, says Neil Buckholtz, a neuroscientist at the National Institute on Aging in Bethesda, Md., which cofunded this study. http://Louis-J-Sheehan.de
U.S. sales of ginkgo averaged $170 million from 2000 to 2004.
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* This may be true however one natural compound has shown positive effects. The compound resveratrol has shown interesting neuroprotective properties in clinical trials. Drs. Anderson and Setia reported in a January 2008 paper that of 121 subjects with moderate to severe memory loss 94 of those patients given biotivia Transmax, an extract of red wine used by researchers, showed marked improvement in short term memory, improved motor skills and improved physical coordination. Resveratrol works by activating the human Sirt 1 gene much like caloric restriction does. Sirtris pharma is developing a synthetic version of transmax which it intends to have on the market in five years. In another study by Dr. Sinclair of Harvard published in the journal Nature in November transmax resveratrol was shown to increase the life span of obese mammals by 31%. This is an exciting area of research and could lead to some revolutionary new preventative strategies and safer less invasive treatments for Alzheimers disease. In Dr. Sinclair's study of obese mice he found that those fed resveratrol lived 31% longer and were free of cardiovascular diseases.
“This is tremendously disappointing,” says study coauthor Steven DeKosky, a neurologist at the University of Virginia School of Medicine in Charlottesville.
DeKosky has good reason to feel let down. In earlier laboratory tests, ginkgo extract showed an ability to protect brain cells from the very sort of problems that occur in Alzheimer’s patients. In animal tests, the herb inhibited the clumping — or formation of plaques — of the protein amyloid-beta. These plaques are widely assumed to play a role in Alzheimer’s. Ginkgo also has antioxidant properties, further boosting its appeal.
But the new, eight-year study, the largest clinical trial ever specifically designed to test a drug or supplement for Alzheimer’s prevention, casts serious doubt on ginkgo’s usefulness. European researchers are now conducting a similar trial and are likely to present data in a year or so, DeKosky says. If those findings are also negative, he says, “That would clinch it.”
Starting in 2000, DeKosky and his colleagues randomly assigned more than 3,000 people, average age 79, to receive two ginkgopills a day or placebo pills. All participants were free of Alzheimer’s disease or other dementia at the start, but roughly one in six in each group began the study with some mild cognitive impairment. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire DeKosky worked on the trial while at the University of Pittsburgh.
The researchers tracked the volunteers’ progress until 2008. The participants were instructed to show up for visits at assigned clinics every six months for assessment. Each also had a partner to ensure attendance at the checkups, DeKosky says.
After an average follow-up of six years, roughly equal numbers of people taking ginkgo and people taking placebos had developed dementia, which in the vast majority of cases was Alzheimer’s disease.
The study wasn’t designed to measure cognitive gains or losses other than the dementia diagnosis, leaving open the question of whether ginkgohelped any of the volunteers’ memory in everyday activities. The supplement is also used by people hoping to promote everyday memory gains. But, says physician Lon Schneider of the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, “it is unlikely that a trial with no difference in dementia outcomes would yield significant benefit in the cognitive and functional impairment that define the dementia.” Writing in the same JAMA issue, Schneider says the new study “adds to the substantial body of evidence that G. biloba extract as it is generally used does not prevent dementia.”
Although this large trial was conducted over several years, it leaves some questions unanswered, says Barry Oken, a neurologist at the Oregon Health & Science University in Portland. The doses of ginkgoused were far smaller, pound-for-pound, than those that showed effectiveness in animal models, he says. And some of the data quality might have suffered because it is difficult to ascertain whether people were actually taking their pills, he says.
At each six-month visit, participants brought in their empty plastic pill packages. DeKosky acknowledged that there was no way to verify that the volunteers took all their pills. “But the majority of old folks are already taking medications,” he says. Participants probably put the study pills in the same weekly pill boxes they use for their regular medications and thus would be unlikely to forget to take a dose.
Other popular over-the-counter supplements such as fish oil, omega-3 fatty acids and resveratrol are being tested in large trials or are under consideration for them. Although trials that assess long-term prevention are expensive — the recent study cost $30 million — they are the only reliable way to test products against Alzheimer’s and other slow-developing diseases, says Neil Buckholtz, a neuroscientist at the National Institute on Aging in Bethesda, Md., which cofunded this study. http://Louis-J-Sheehan.de
U.S. sales of ginkgo averaged $170 million from 2000 to 2004.
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* This may be true however one natural compound has shown positive effects. The compound resveratrol has shown interesting neuroprotective properties in clinical trials. Drs. Anderson and Setia reported in a January 2008 paper that of 121 subjects with moderate to severe memory loss 94 of those patients given biotivia Transmax, an extract of red wine used by researchers, showed marked improvement in short term memory, improved motor skills and improved physical coordination. Resveratrol works by activating the human Sirt 1 gene much like caloric restriction does. Sirtris pharma is developing a synthetic version of transmax which it intends to have on the market in five years. In another study by Dr. Sinclair of Harvard published in the journal Nature in November transmax resveratrol was shown to increase the life span of obese mammals by 31%. This is an exciting area of research and could lead to some revolutionary new preventative strategies and safer less invasive treatments for Alzheimers disease. In Dr. Sinclair's study of obese mice he found that those fed resveratrol lived 31% longer and were free of cardiovascular diseases.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
solomon 9.sol.2234 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
1:1 Now king David was old and stricken in years; and they covered him with clothes, but he gat no heat.
1:2 Wherefore his servants said unto him, Let there be sought for my lord the king a young virgin: and let her stand before the king, and let her cherish him, and let her lie in thy bosom, that my lord the king may get heat.
1:3 So they sought for a fair damsel throughout all the coasts of Israel, and found Abishag a Shunammite, and brought her to the king.
1:4 And the damsel was very fair, and cherished the king, and ministered to him: but the king knew her not.http://LOUIS-J-SHEEHAN.ORG
1:5 Then Adonijah the son of Haggith exalted himself, saying, I will be king: and he prepared him chariots and horsemen, and fifty men to run before him.
1:6 And his father had not displeased him at any time in saying, Why hast thou done so? and he also was a very goodly man; and his mother bare him after Absalom.
1:7 And he conferred with Joab the son of Zeruiah, and with Abiathar the priest: and they following Adonijah helped him.
1:8 But Zadok the priest, and Benaiah the son of Jehoiada, and Nathan the prophet, and Shimei, and Rei, and the mighty men which belonged to David, were not with Adonijah.
1:9 And Adonijah slew sheep and oxen and fat cattle by the stone of Zoheleth, which is by Enrogel, and called all his brethren the king's sons, and all the men of Judah the king's servants:
1:10 But Nathan the prophet, and Benaiah, and the mighty men, and Solomon his brother, he called not.
1:11 Wherefore Nathan spake unto Bathsheba the mother of Solomon, saying, Hast thou not heard that Adonijah the son of Haggith doth reign, and David our lord knoweth it not?
1:12 Now therefore come, let me, I pray thee, give thee counsel, that thou mayest save thine own life, and the life of thy son Solomon.
1:13 Go and get thee in unto king David, and say unto him, Didst not thou, my lord, O king, swear unto thine handmaid, saying, Assuredly Solomon thy son shall reign after me, and he shall sit upon my throne? Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire why then doth Adonijah reign?
1:14 Behold, while thou yet talkest there with the king, I also will come in after thee, and confirm thy words.
1:15 And Bathsheba went in unto the king into the chamber: and the king was very old; and Abishag the Shunammite ministered unto the king.
1:16 And Bathsheba bowed, and did obeisance unto the king. And the king said, What wouldest thou?
1:17 And she said unto him, My lord, thou swarest by the LORD thy God unto thine handmaid, saying, Assuredly Solomon thy son shall reign after me, and he shall sit upon my throne.
1:18 And now, behold, Adonijah reigneth; and now, my lord the king, thou knowest it not:
1:19 And he hath slain oxen and fat cattle and sheep in abundance, and hath called all the sons of the king, and Abiathar the priest, and Joab the captain of the host: but Solomon thy servant hath he not called.
1:20 And thou, my lord, O king, the eyes of all Israel are upon thee, that thou shouldest tell them who shall sit on the throne of my lord the king after him.
1:21 Otherwise it shall come to pass, when my lord the king shall sleep with his fathers, that I and my son Solomon shall be counted offenders.
1:22 And, lo, while she yet talked with the king, Nathan the prophet also came in.
1:23 And they told the king, saying, Behold Nathan the prophet. And when he was come in before the king, he bowed himself before the king with his face to the ground.
1:24 And Nathan said, My lord, O king, hast thou said, Adonijah shall reign after me, and he shall sit upon my throne?
1:25 For he is gone down this day, and hath slain oxen and fat cattle and sheep in abundance, and hath called all the king's sons, and the captains of the host, and Abiathar the priest; and, behold, they eat and drink before him, and say, God save king Adonijah.
1:26 But me, even me thy servant, and Zadok the priest, and Benaiah the son of Jehoiada, and thy servant Solomon, hath he not called.
1:27 Is this thing done by my lord the king, and thou hast not shewed it unto thy servant, who should sit on the throne of my lord the king after him?
1:28 Then king David answered and said, Call me Bathsheba. And she came into the king's presence, and stood before the king.
1:29 And the king sware, and said, As the LORD liveth, that hath redeemed my soul out of all distress,
1:30 Even as I sware unto thee by the LORD God of Israel, saying, Assuredly Solomon thy son shall reign after me, and he shall sit upon my throne in my stead; even so will I certainly do this day.
1:31 Then Bathsheba bowed with her face to the earth, and did reverence to the king, and said, Let my lord king David live for ever.
1:32 And king David said, Call me Zadok the priest, and Nathan the prophet, and Benaiah the son of Jehoiada. And they came before the king.
1:33 The king also said unto them, Take with you the servants of your lord, and cause Solomon my son to ride upon mine own mule, and bring him down to Gihon:
1:34 And let Zadok the priest and Nathan the prophet anoint him there king over Israel: and blow ye with the trumpet, and say, God save king Solomon.
1:35 Then ye shall come up after him, that he may come and sit upon my throne; for he shall be king in my stead: and I have appointed him to be ruler over Israel and over Judah.
1:36 And Benaiah the son of Jehoiada answered the king, and said, Amen: the LORD God of my lord the king say so too.
1:37 As the LORD hath been with my lord the king, even so be he with Solomon, and make his throne greater than the throne of my lord king David.
1:38 So Zadok the priest, and Nathan the prophet, and Benaiah the son of Jehoiada, and the Cherethites, and the Pelethites, went down, and caused Solomon to ride upon king David's mule, and brought him to Gihon.http://LOUIS-J-SHEEHAN.ORG
1:39 And Zadok the priest took an horn of oil out of the tabernacle, and anointed Solomon. And they blew the trumpet; and all the people said, God save king Solomon.
1:40 And all the people came up after him, and the people piped with pipes, and rejoiced with great joy, so that the earth rent with the sound of them.
1:41 And Adonijah and all the guests that were with him heard it as they had made an end of eating. And when Joab heard the sound of the trumpet, he said, Wherefore is this noise of the city being in an uproar?
1:42 And while he yet spake, behold, Jonathan the son of Abiathar the priest came; and Adonijah said unto him, Come in; for thou art a valiant man, and bringest good tidings.
1:43 And Jonathan answered and said to Adonijah, Verily our lord king David hath made Solomon king.
1:44 And the king hath sent with him Zadok the priest, and Nathan the prophet, and Benaiah the son of Jehoiada, and the Cherethites, and the Pelethites, and they have caused him to ride upon the king's mule:
1:45 And Zadok the priest and Nathan the prophet have anointed him king in Gihon: and they are come up from thence rejoicing, so that the city rang again. This is the noise that ye have heard.http://LOUIS-J-SHEEHAN.ORG
1:46 And also Solomon sitteth on the throne of the kingdom.
1:47 And moreover the king's servants came to bless our lord king David, saying, God make the name of Solomon better than thy name, and make his throne greater than thy throne. And the king bowed himself upon the bed.
1:48 And also thus said the king, Blessed be the LORD God of Israel, which hath given one to sit on my throne this day, mine eyes even seeing it.
1:49 And all the guests that were with Adonijah were afraid, and rose up, and went every man his way. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
1:50 And Adonijah feared because of Solomon, and arose, and went, and caught hold on the horns of the altar.
1:51 And it was told Solomon, saying, Behold, Adonijah feareth king Solomon: for, lo, he hath caught hold on the horns of the altar, saying, Let king Solomon swear unto me today that he will not slay his servant with the sword.
1:52 And Solomon said, If he will shew himself a worthy man, there shall not an hair of him fall to the earth: but if wickedness shall be found in him, he shall die.
1:53 So king Solomon sent, and they brought him down from the altar. And he came and bowed himself to king Solomon: and Solomon said unto him, Go to thine house.
1:2 Wherefore his servants said unto him, Let there be sought for my lord the king a young virgin: and let her stand before the king, and let her cherish him, and let her lie in thy bosom, that my lord the king may get heat.
1:3 So they sought for a fair damsel throughout all the coasts of Israel, and found Abishag a Shunammite, and brought her to the king.
1:4 And the damsel was very fair, and cherished the king, and ministered to him: but the king knew her not.http://LOUIS-J-SHEEHAN.ORG
1:5 Then Adonijah the son of Haggith exalted himself, saying, I will be king: and he prepared him chariots and horsemen, and fifty men to run before him.
1:6 And his father had not displeased him at any time in saying, Why hast thou done so? and he also was a very goodly man; and his mother bare him after Absalom.
1:7 And he conferred with Joab the son of Zeruiah, and with Abiathar the priest: and they following Adonijah helped him.
1:8 But Zadok the priest, and Benaiah the son of Jehoiada, and Nathan the prophet, and Shimei, and Rei, and the mighty men which belonged to David, were not with Adonijah.
1:9 And Adonijah slew sheep and oxen and fat cattle by the stone of Zoheleth, which is by Enrogel, and called all his brethren the king's sons, and all the men of Judah the king's servants:
1:10 But Nathan the prophet, and Benaiah, and the mighty men, and Solomon his brother, he called not.
1:11 Wherefore Nathan spake unto Bathsheba the mother of Solomon, saying, Hast thou not heard that Adonijah the son of Haggith doth reign, and David our lord knoweth it not?
1:12 Now therefore come, let me, I pray thee, give thee counsel, that thou mayest save thine own life, and the life of thy son Solomon.
1:13 Go and get thee in unto king David, and say unto him, Didst not thou, my lord, O king, swear unto thine handmaid, saying, Assuredly Solomon thy son shall reign after me, and he shall sit upon my throne? Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire why then doth Adonijah reign?
1:14 Behold, while thou yet talkest there with the king, I also will come in after thee, and confirm thy words.
1:15 And Bathsheba went in unto the king into the chamber: and the king was very old; and Abishag the Shunammite ministered unto the king.
1:16 And Bathsheba bowed, and did obeisance unto the king. And the king said, What wouldest thou?
1:17 And she said unto him, My lord, thou swarest by the LORD thy God unto thine handmaid, saying, Assuredly Solomon thy son shall reign after me, and he shall sit upon my throne.
1:18 And now, behold, Adonijah reigneth; and now, my lord the king, thou knowest it not:
1:19 And he hath slain oxen and fat cattle and sheep in abundance, and hath called all the sons of the king, and Abiathar the priest, and Joab the captain of the host: but Solomon thy servant hath he not called.
1:20 And thou, my lord, O king, the eyes of all Israel are upon thee, that thou shouldest tell them who shall sit on the throne of my lord the king after him.
1:21 Otherwise it shall come to pass, when my lord the king shall sleep with his fathers, that I and my son Solomon shall be counted offenders.
1:22 And, lo, while she yet talked with the king, Nathan the prophet also came in.
1:23 And they told the king, saying, Behold Nathan the prophet. And when he was come in before the king, he bowed himself before the king with his face to the ground.
1:24 And Nathan said, My lord, O king, hast thou said, Adonijah shall reign after me, and he shall sit upon my throne?
1:25 For he is gone down this day, and hath slain oxen and fat cattle and sheep in abundance, and hath called all the king's sons, and the captains of the host, and Abiathar the priest; and, behold, they eat and drink before him, and say, God save king Adonijah.
1:26 But me, even me thy servant, and Zadok the priest, and Benaiah the son of Jehoiada, and thy servant Solomon, hath he not called.
1:27 Is this thing done by my lord the king, and thou hast not shewed it unto thy servant, who should sit on the throne of my lord the king after him?
1:28 Then king David answered and said, Call me Bathsheba. And she came into the king's presence, and stood before the king.
1:29 And the king sware, and said, As the LORD liveth, that hath redeemed my soul out of all distress,
1:30 Even as I sware unto thee by the LORD God of Israel, saying, Assuredly Solomon thy son shall reign after me, and he shall sit upon my throne in my stead; even so will I certainly do this day.
1:31 Then Bathsheba bowed with her face to the earth, and did reverence to the king, and said, Let my lord king David live for ever.
1:32 And king David said, Call me Zadok the priest, and Nathan the prophet, and Benaiah the son of Jehoiada. And they came before the king.
1:33 The king also said unto them, Take with you the servants of your lord, and cause Solomon my son to ride upon mine own mule, and bring him down to Gihon:
1:34 And let Zadok the priest and Nathan the prophet anoint him there king over Israel: and blow ye with the trumpet, and say, God save king Solomon.
1:35 Then ye shall come up after him, that he may come and sit upon my throne; for he shall be king in my stead: and I have appointed him to be ruler over Israel and over Judah.
1:36 And Benaiah the son of Jehoiada answered the king, and said, Amen: the LORD God of my lord the king say so too.
1:37 As the LORD hath been with my lord the king, even so be he with Solomon, and make his throne greater than the throne of my lord king David.
1:38 So Zadok the priest, and Nathan the prophet, and Benaiah the son of Jehoiada, and the Cherethites, and the Pelethites, went down, and caused Solomon to ride upon king David's mule, and brought him to Gihon.http://LOUIS-J-SHEEHAN.ORG
1:39 And Zadok the priest took an horn of oil out of the tabernacle, and anointed Solomon. And they blew the trumpet; and all the people said, God save king Solomon.
1:40 And all the people came up after him, and the people piped with pipes, and rejoiced with great joy, so that the earth rent with the sound of them.
1:41 And Adonijah and all the guests that were with him heard it as they had made an end of eating. And when Joab heard the sound of the trumpet, he said, Wherefore is this noise of the city being in an uproar?
1:42 And while he yet spake, behold, Jonathan the son of Abiathar the priest came; and Adonijah said unto him, Come in; for thou art a valiant man, and bringest good tidings.
1:43 And Jonathan answered and said to Adonijah, Verily our lord king David hath made Solomon king.
1:44 And the king hath sent with him Zadok the priest, and Nathan the prophet, and Benaiah the son of Jehoiada, and the Cherethites, and the Pelethites, and they have caused him to ride upon the king's mule:
1:45 And Zadok the priest and Nathan the prophet have anointed him king in Gihon: and they are come up from thence rejoicing, so that the city rang again. This is the noise that ye have heard.http://LOUIS-J-SHEEHAN.ORG
1:46 And also Solomon sitteth on the throne of the kingdom.
1:47 And moreover the king's servants came to bless our lord king David, saying, God make the name of Solomon better than thy name, and make his throne greater than thy throne. And the king bowed himself upon the bed.
1:48 And also thus said the king, Blessed be the LORD God of Israel, which hath given one to sit on my throne this day, mine eyes even seeing it.
1:49 And all the guests that were with Adonijah were afraid, and rose up, and went every man his way. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
1:50 And Adonijah feared because of Solomon, and arose, and went, and caught hold on the horns of the altar.
1:51 And it was told Solomon, saying, Behold, Adonijah feareth king Solomon: for, lo, he hath caught hold on the horns of the altar, saying, Let king Solomon swear unto me today that he will not slay his servant with the sword.
1:52 And Solomon said, If he will shew himself a worthy man, there shall not an hair of him fall to the earth: but if wickedness shall be found in him, he shall die.
1:53 So king Solomon sent, and they brought him down from the altar. And he came and bowed himself to king Solomon: and Solomon said unto him, Go to thine house.
Saturday, April 11, 2009
erase 0.era.111 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
The first experimental study in humans connecting beta-blockers and memory suggests these drugs, usually taken to treat heart conditions, can also wipe away the emotions associated with frightening memories. The power of such memories could be dampened when a person thinks about the traumatic events after taking the drugs, scientists say.
Clinical psychologist Merel Kindt of the University of Amsterdam and her colleagues report the new finding online February 15 in Nature Neuroscience. The research builds on a clinical study published in the May 2008 Journal of Psychiatric Research that suggested beta-blockers helped patients suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, PTSD.
“Kindt’s work confirms our clinical results and goes further by showing beta-blockers also have this effect” on people who had no previous history of mental health issues, comments Alain Brunet, psychiatrist at the Douglas Mental Health University Institute at McGill University in Montreal and a coauthor of the PTSD study.
Kindt and her colleagues showed subjects a photograph of a spider, which was accompanied by an electric shock, conditioning the participants to have a fearful memory of the image. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire Later, some participants were given a beta-blocker drug, propranolol, and others were given a placebo before being exposed to the image again. The beta-blocker group’s fear response was greatly reduced or even eliminated when the subjects were shown the spider photograph 24 hours after taking the drugs. “The people did not forget seeing the photograph of the spider,” Kindt says. ”But the fear associated with the image was erased.”Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
The researchers think beta-blockers work by changing the way the frightening memories are stored. Each time a memory is recalled it changes a little, and the new version is recorded in the long-term memory stash via brain chemical fluctuations in a process called reconsolidation. The beta-blockers could interfere with the brain chemicals, blocking reconsolidation of the emotional component of the memory, but leaving the rest of the memory intact, the scientists suggest.http://Louis-J-Sheehan.de
If beta-blocker treatment were applied to people with anxiety disorders, “People would remember going through the trauma, but the emotional intensity would be dulled,” comments Karim Nader, behavioral neurobiologist at McGill University and a coauthor of the PTSD study.
Beta-blockers wouldn’t stop reconsolidation of only frightening memories, the researchers say. “It’s likely that any emotional memory, happy or sad, recalled after taking the drug would be dulled,” Kindt speculates. But patients with fear-based anxiety disorders probably aren’t thinking about the happy moments of their lives; they are obsessed with the traumatic moments, the scientists say.
Before beta-blockers can be considered a widespread treatment for anxiety disorders, the long-term effects of the drugs on memory must be assessed. But the drugs are relatively benign and already widely prescribed for other conditions, the researchers point out.
“Beta-blockers make the traumatic memories easier to deal with,” Nader says. “People can begin to talk about the traumatic event, and can even move on.”
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Comments 4
* I will look for the articles, but I have read that fear takes some moments to be fully experienced because there is a physiological component. When exposed to a fearful stimulus, there is an initial response within the brain, but also a cohort of autonomic physiological responses in the body... blood pressure, perspiration, tremor, gastric contraction and acid. The articles I've read indicate that these physiological responses to fearful stimuli are a large component of the experience of fear.
Perhaps, because beta blockers inhibit these physiological responses, the individual's fear response is muted during re-exposure to the stimulus, thereby reducing the emotional power of the memory and making those memories less frightening for the subject.http://Louis-J-Sheehan.de
I will look for the articles and post references here, if I find them.
Michael McGinnis McGinnis
Mar. 30, 2009 at 10:30am
* This is an interesting thread. But I think one important point is that the process of memory consolidation/reconsolidation is somewhat theoretical and imprecise. As I understand it, how long consolidation takes (hours, days years?) is not entirely clear. http://Louis-J-Sheehan.de
Jim Convery Jim Convery
Feb. 20, 2009 at 3:06pm
* Stormie,
Your doubts about beta-blockers have partial validity. They prevent adrenaline binding with beta adrenaline (aka epinephrine) receptors which can reduce/eliminate the adrenaline surges we associate with anxiety/fear - fast respiration and heart rate, sweating, etc.Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
However, in this case the drug is only taken once or twice to block consolidation of the fearful memory in such a way that it becomes a recurring nightmare.
Ian Westmore Ian Westmore
Feb. 17, 2009 at 2:09am
* I would really like to know the specifics of the experiment and pose a question to Kindt and others: Do you think it is fair to suggest that propranolol, a medication to treat high blood pressure, given to subjects that didn't suffer from high blood pressure might not have as intense a reaction to anxiety because they were given a blood pressure medication and thus it wasn't possible for their body or brain to react as it normally would? Someone on opiates would not behave or react normally, so why would someone given a medication for something they don't suffer from be expected to behave or react as they normally would?
Clinical psychologist Merel Kindt of the University of Amsterdam and her colleagues report the new finding online February 15 in Nature Neuroscience. The research builds on a clinical study published in the May 2008 Journal of Psychiatric Research that suggested beta-blockers helped patients suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, PTSD.
“Kindt’s work confirms our clinical results and goes further by showing beta-blockers also have this effect” on people who had no previous history of mental health issues, comments Alain Brunet, psychiatrist at the Douglas Mental Health University Institute at McGill University in Montreal and a coauthor of the PTSD study.
Kindt and her colleagues showed subjects a photograph of a spider, which was accompanied by an electric shock, conditioning the participants to have a fearful memory of the image. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire Later, some participants were given a beta-blocker drug, propranolol, and others were given a placebo before being exposed to the image again. The beta-blocker group’s fear response was greatly reduced or even eliminated when the subjects were shown the spider photograph 24 hours after taking the drugs. “The people did not forget seeing the photograph of the spider,” Kindt says. ”But the fear associated with the image was erased.”Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
The researchers think beta-blockers work by changing the way the frightening memories are stored. Each time a memory is recalled it changes a little, and the new version is recorded in the long-term memory stash via brain chemical fluctuations in a process called reconsolidation. The beta-blockers could interfere with the brain chemicals, blocking reconsolidation of the emotional component of the memory, but leaving the rest of the memory intact, the scientists suggest.http://Louis-J-Sheehan.de
If beta-blocker treatment were applied to people with anxiety disorders, “People would remember going through the trauma, but the emotional intensity would be dulled,” comments Karim Nader, behavioral neurobiologist at McGill University and a coauthor of the PTSD study.
Beta-blockers wouldn’t stop reconsolidation of only frightening memories, the researchers say. “It’s likely that any emotional memory, happy or sad, recalled after taking the drug would be dulled,” Kindt speculates. But patients with fear-based anxiety disorders probably aren’t thinking about the happy moments of their lives; they are obsessed with the traumatic moments, the scientists say.
Before beta-blockers can be considered a widespread treatment for anxiety disorders, the long-term effects of the drugs on memory must be assessed. But the drugs are relatively benign and already widely prescribed for other conditions, the researchers point out.
“Beta-blockers make the traumatic memories easier to deal with,” Nader says. “People can begin to talk about the traumatic event, and can even move on.”
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Found in: Biology, Biomedicine and Body & Brain
Share & Save
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Comments 4
* I will look for the articles, but I have read that fear takes some moments to be fully experienced because there is a physiological component. When exposed to a fearful stimulus, there is an initial response within the brain, but also a cohort of autonomic physiological responses in the body... blood pressure, perspiration, tremor, gastric contraction and acid. The articles I've read indicate that these physiological responses to fearful stimuli are a large component of the experience of fear.
Perhaps, because beta blockers inhibit these physiological responses, the individual's fear response is muted during re-exposure to the stimulus, thereby reducing the emotional power of the memory and making those memories less frightening for the subject.http://Louis-J-Sheehan.de
I will look for the articles and post references here, if I find them.
Michael McGinnis McGinnis
Mar. 30, 2009 at 10:30am
* This is an interesting thread. But I think one important point is that the process of memory consolidation/reconsolidation is somewhat theoretical and imprecise. As I understand it, how long consolidation takes (hours, days years?) is not entirely clear. http://Louis-J-Sheehan.de
Jim Convery Jim Convery
Feb. 20, 2009 at 3:06pm
* Stormie,
Your doubts about beta-blockers have partial validity. They prevent adrenaline binding with beta adrenaline (aka epinephrine) receptors which can reduce/eliminate the adrenaline surges we associate with anxiety/fear - fast respiration and heart rate, sweating, etc.Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
However, in this case the drug is only taken once or twice to block consolidation of the fearful memory in such a way that it becomes a recurring nightmare.
Ian Westmore Ian Westmore
Feb. 17, 2009 at 2:09am
* I would really like to know the specifics of the experiment and pose a question to Kindt and others: Do you think it is fair to suggest that propranolol, a medication to treat high blood pressure, given to subjects that didn't suffer from high blood pressure might not have as intense a reaction to anxiety because they were given a blood pressure medication and thus it wasn't possible for their body or brain to react as it normally would? Someone on opiates would not behave or react normally, so why would someone given a medication for something they don't suffer from be expected to behave or react as they normally would?
Saturday, January 10, 2009
dimmer 5.dim.1 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire . Like a searchlight illuminating the distant past, the afterglow of a powerful gamma-ray burst has revealed what a stellar nursery in a remote galaxy looked like just 3 billion years after the Big Bang. The burst offers one of the earliest views of a star-forming region in the universe, which is now 13.7 billion years old.
The gamma-ray burst, recorded on June 7, 2008, and dubbed GRB 080607, is believed to have been generated when a massive star suddenly collapsed to form a black hole. While the burst itself lasted for only seconds, its fading afterglow in visible light remained remarkably bright for a full hour.http://louisjsheehan.blogstream.com
Jason Prochaska of the University of California, Santa Cruz, and his colleagues began observing the visible-light afterglow with the Keck I Telescope on Hawaii’s Mauna Kea less than 20 minutes after the burst was recorded by NASA’s orbiting Swift observatory. http://louisjsheehan.blogstream.com
Prochaska reported the findings on January 6 at the winter meeting of the American Astronomical Society and his team will also describe the study in an upcoming Astrophysical Journal Letters.
The Keck spectrum of the afterglow revealed that the burst originated in a galaxy so remote that the light now reaching Earth was emitted when the galaxy was only 3 billion years old. Among thousands of quasars, hundreds of stars and several tens of gamma-ray bursts Prochaska has examined, “this is the most exciting spectrum I have ever studied,” he says. The spectrum provides “the first view of a star-forming region with a gamma-ray burst,” revealing details on spatial scales of just a few light-years, much finer than can be seen by directly imaging a distant galaxy in visible light or radio.
The galaxy shows a remarkably similar enrichment in chemical elements heavier than helium, along with dust and molecular cloud properties, to what is observed in the Milky Way today. “This is really our first view of these properties in such a distant galaxy, and the surprise is really to see such a mature galaxy in our distant past,” Prochaska says.
The finding “demonstrates the ability of gamma-ray bursts through their brilliance to illuminate the properties of the [distant] universe," comments theorist Don Lamb of the University of Chicago. “They have the power to make it possible to measure things that are otherwise unobservable — in this case the properties of a cold, dark and dense molecular cloud as it was 10 billion years ago.”
The forensic evidence found by Prochaska and his collaborators “points more strongly than ever before to dense molecular clouds as the scene of the deaths of the massive stars that produce gamma-ray bursts,” adds Lamb.
“Within the spectrum, there are several tens of absorption features which remain unidentified,” he adds. “In comparison, there may be only a handful of absorption lines, if any, that I would say are unidentified in the hundreds of other spectra that I have examined closely. Odds are, we are seeing these [absorption lines] for the first time on Earth.” Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
The afterglow had to be unusually bright to reveal so much about the dusty, star-forming region of the host galaxy from which it originated. Prochaska estimates that the event is the second most luminous afterglow on record, and for an hour remained 10,000 times more luminous than a typical quasar. Had the afterglow been much dimmer, then dust in the galaxy — which absorbs 99 percent of visible light — would have rendered the afterglow invisible.
Over the past several years, astronomers have detected gamma-ray bursts even more remote than this one, bursts that reveal the existence of massive stars as early as 1 billion years after the Big Bang. But because the spectra of the afterglow from GRB 080607 has a much stronger signal and covers a much wider range of wavelengths. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
The gamma-ray burst, recorded on June 7, 2008, and dubbed GRB 080607, is believed to have been generated when a massive star suddenly collapsed to form a black hole. While the burst itself lasted for only seconds, its fading afterglow in visible light remained remarkably bright for a full hour.http://louisjsheehan.blogstream.com
Jason Prochaska of the University of California, Santa Cruz, and his colleagues began observing the visible-light afterglow with the Keck I Telescope on Hawaii’s Mauna Kea less than 20 minutes after the burst was recorded by NASA’s orbiting Swift observatory. http://louisjsheehan.blogstream.com
Prochaska reported the findings on January 6 at the winter meeting of the American Astronomical Society and his team will also describe the study in an upcoming Astrophysical Journal Letters.
The Keck spectrum of the afterglow revealed that the burst originated in a galaxy so remote that the light now reaching Earth was emitted when the galaxy was only 3 billion years old. Among thousands of quasars, hundreds of stars and several tens of gamma-ray bursts Prochaska has examined, “this is the most exciting spectrum I have ever studied,” he says. The spectrum provides “the first view of a star-forming region with a gamma-ray burst,” revealing details on spatial scales of just a few light-years, much finer than can be seen by directly imaging a distant galaxy in visible light or radio.
The galaxy shows a remarkably similar enrichment in chemical elements heavier than helium, along with dust and molecular cloud properties, to what is observed in the Milky Way today. “This is really our first view of these properties in such a distant galaxy, and the surprise is really to see such a mature galaxy in our distant past,” Prochaska says.
The finding “demonstrates the ability of gamma-ray bursts through their brilliance to illuminate the properties of the [distant] universe," comments theorist Don Lamb of the University of Chicago. “They have the power to make it possible to measure things that are otherwise unobservable — in this case the properties of a cold, dark and dense molecular cloud as it was 10 billion years ago.”
The forensic evidence found by Prochaska and his collaborators “points more strongly than ever before to dense molecular clouds as the scene of the deaths of the massive stars that produce gamma-ray bursts,” adds Lamb.
“Within the spectrum, there are several tens of absorption features which remain unidentified,” he adds. “In comparison, there may be only a handful of absorption lines, if any, that I would say are unidentified in the hundreds of other spectra that I have examined closely. Odds are, we are seeing these [absorption lines] for the first time on Earth.” Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
The afterglow had to be unusually bright to reveal so much about the dusty, star-forming region of the host galaxy from which it originated. Prochaska estimates that the event is the second most luminous afterglow on record, and for an hour remained 10,000 times more luminous than a typical quasar. Had the afterglow been much dimmer, then dust in the galaxy — which absorbs 99 percent of visible light — would have rendered the afterglow invisible.
Over the past several years, astronomers have detected gamma-ray bursts even more remote than this one, bursts that reveal the existence of massive stars as early as 1 billion years after the Big Bang. But because the spectra of the afterglow from GRB 080607 has a much stronger signal and covers a much wider range of wavelengths. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
printing 6.pri.00030004 Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire . Borrowing and spending beyond ordinary limits largely explains how Americans got into such economic trouble. For decades, businesses and consumers feasted relentlessly, as if gravity, arithmetic and the tyranny of debt had been defanged by financial engineering.
Armed with credit cards and belief in a bountiful future, Americans brought home ceaseless volumes of iPods and cashmere sweaters, and never mind their declining incomes and winnowing savings. Banks lent staggering sums of money to homeowners with dubious credit, convinced that real estate prices could only go up. Government spent as it saw fit, secure that foreigners could always be counted on to finance American debt.http://louis0j0sheehan0esquire.wordpress.com
So it may seem perverse that in this new era of reckoning — with consumers finally tapped out, government coffers lean and banks paralyzed by fear — many economists have concluded that the appropriate medicine is a fresh dose of the very course that delivered the disarray: Spend without limit. Print money today, fret about the consequences tomorrow. Otherwise, invite a loss of jobs and business failures that could cripple the nation for years.
Such thinking carries the moment as President-elect Barack Obama puts together plans to spend more than $700 billion on projects like building roads and classrooms to put people back to work. It is the philosophy behind the Federal Reserve’s decision to drop interest rates near zero — meaning that banks can essentially borrow money for free — while lending directly to financial institutions. This is the mentality that has propelled the Treasury to promise up to $950 billion to aid Wall Street, Detroit and perhaps other recipients.
But where does all this money come from? And how can a country that got itself in peril by borrowing and spending without limit now borrow and spend its way back to safety?
In the case of the Fed, the money comes from its authority to print dollars from thin air. Since late August, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet from about $900 billion to more than $2.2 trillion, creating $1.3 trillion that did not exist to replace some of the trillions wiped out by falling house prices and vengeful stock markets. The Fed has taken troublesome assets off the hands of banks and simply credited them with having reserves they previously lacked.
In the case of the Treasury, the money comes from the same wellspring that has been financing American debt for decades: Investors in the United States and around the world — not least, the central banks of China, Japan and Saudi Arabia, which have parked national savings in the safety of American government bonds.
Americans have gotten accustomed to treating this well as bottomless, even as anxiety grows that it could one day run dry with potentially devastating consequences.
The value of outstanding American Treasury bills now reaches $10.6 trillion, a number sure to increase as dollars are spent building bridges, saving auto jobs and preventing the collapse of government-backed mortgage giants. Worry centers on the possibility that foreigners could come to doubt the American wherewithal to pay back such an extraordinary sum, prompting them to stop — or at least slow — their deposits of savings into the United States.http://louis0j0sheehan0esquire.wordpress.com
That could send the dollar plummeting, making imported goods more expensive for American consumers and businesses. It would force the Treasury to pay higher returns to find takers for its debt, increasing interest rates for home- and auto-buyers, for businesses and credit-card holders. http://louis0j0sheehan0esquire.wordpress.com
“We got into this mess to a considerable extent by overborrowing,” said Martin N. Baily, a chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Clinton and now a fellow at the Brookings Institution. “Now, we’re saying, ‘Well, O.K., let’s just borrow a bunch more, and that will help us get out of this mess.’ It’s like a drunk who says, ‘Give me a bottle of Scotch, and then I’ll be O.K. and I won’t have to drink anymore.’ Eventually, we have to get off this binge of borrowing.”
Some argue that the moment for sobriety is long overdue, and postponing it further only increases the ultimate costs. “Our government doesn’t have enough spare cash to bail out a lemonade stand,” declared Peter Schiff president of Euro Pacific Capital, a Connecticut-based trading house. “Our standard of living must decline to reflect years of reckless consumption and the disintegration of our industrial base. Only by swallowing this tough medicine now will our sick economy ever recover.”
But most economists cast such thinking as recklessly extreme, akin to putting an obese person on a painful diet in the name of long-term health just as they are fighting off a potentially lethal infection. http://louis0j0sheehan0esquire.wordpress.com In the dominant view, now is no time for austerity — not with paychecks disappearing from the economy and gyrating markets wiping out retirement savings. Not with the financial system in virtual lockdown, and much of the world in a similar state of retrenchment, shrinking demand for American goods and services. http://louis0j0sheehan0esquire.wordpress.com
Since the Great Depression, the conventional prescription for such times is to have the government step in and create demand by cycling its dollars through the economy, generating jobs and business opportunities. That such dollars must be borrowed is hardly ideal, adding to the long-term strains on the nation. But the immediate risks of not spending them could be grave.
“This is a dangerous situation,” says Mr. Baily, essentially arguing that the drunk must be kept in Scotch a while longer, lest he burn down the neighborhood in the midst of a crisis. “The risks of things actually getting worse and us going into a really severe recession are high. We need to get more money out there now.”
Had the government worried more about limiting spending than about the potential collapse of the mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it might have triggered precisely the dark scenario that consumes those who worry most about growing American debt, argues Brad Setser, an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations.
China purchased a lot of Fannie and Freddie bonds with the understanding that they were backed by the American government. No bailout “would have been portrayed in China as defaulting on the Chinese people,” Mr. Setser said. That would have increased the likelihood that China would start parking its savings somewhere other than the United States.
The most frequently voiced worry about the bailouts is that the Fed, by sending so much money sloshing through the system, risks generating a bad case of rising prices later on. That puts the onus on the Fed to reverse course and crimp economic activity by lifting interest rates and selling assets back to banks once growth resumes.
But finding the appropriate point to act tends to be more art than science. The Fed might move too early and send the economy back into a tailspin. It might wait too long and let too much money generate inflation.
“It’s a tricky business,” says Allan H. Meltzer, an economist at Carnegie Mellon University, and a former economic adviser to President Reagan. “There’s no math model that tells us when to do it or how.”
But that, as most economists see it, is a worry for another day. Some policy makers are focused on staving off the opposite problem — deflation, or falling prices, as demand weakens to the point that goods pile up without buyers, sending prices down and reducing the incentive for businesses to invest. That could shrink demand further and perhaps even deliver the sort of downward spiral that pinned Japan in the weeds of stagnant growth during the 1990s.
“Those who claim that sharp increases in federal borrowing and the national debt would be ill advised at the present time, when the economy is weakening while deflation threatens, have failed to study Japan’s history,” declared the economist John H. Makin in a report published by the conservative American Enterprise Institute — ordinarily, a staunch advocate for lean government.
So back to the well Americans go, putting aside worries about debt, unleashing another wave of synthesized money in an effort to prevent deeper misery.
“Right now,” Mr. Setser says, “the risk is not doing enough.” Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire.
Armed with credit cards and belief in a bountiful future, Americans brought home ceaseless volumes of iPods and cashmere sweaters, and never mind their declining incomes and winnowing savings. Banks lent staggering sums of money to homeowners with dubious credit, convinced that real estate prices could only go up. Government spent as it saw fit, secure that foreigners could always be counted on to finance American debt.http://louis0j0sheehan0esquire.wordpress.com
So it may seem perverse that in this new era of reckoning — with consumers finally tapped out, government coffers lean and banks paralyzed by fear — many economists have concluded that the appropriate medicine is a fresh dose of the very course that delivered the disarray: Spend without limit. Print money today, fret about the consequences tomorrow. Otherwise, invite a loss of jobs and business failures that could cripple the nation for years.
Such thinking carries the moment as President-elect Barack Obama puts together plans to spend more than $700 billion on projects like building roads and classrooms to put people back to work. It is the philosophy behind the Federal Reserve’s decision to drop interest rates near zero — meaning that banks can essentially borrow money for free — while lending directly to financial institutions. This is the mentality that has propelled the Treasury to promise up to $950 billion to aid Wall Street, Detroit and perhaps other recipients.
But where does all this money come from? And how can a country that got itself in peril by borrowing and spending without limit now borrow and spend its way back to safety?
In the case of the Fed, the money comes from its authority to print dollars from thin air. Since late August, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet from about $900 billion to more than $2.2 trillion, creating $1.3 trillion that did not exist to replace some of the trillions wiped out by falling house prices and vengeful stock markets. The Fed has taken troublesome assets off the hands of banks and simply credited them with having reserves they previously lacked.
In the case of the Treasury, the money comes from the same wellspring that has been financing American debt for decades: Investors in the United States and around the world — not least, the central banks of China, Japan and Saudi Arabia, which have parked national savings in the safety of American government bonds.
Americans have gotten accustomed to treating this well as bottomless, even as anxiety grows that it could one day run dry with potentially devastating consequences.
The value of outstanding American Treasury bills now reaches $10.6 trillion, a number sure to increase as dollars are spent building bridges, saving auto jobs and preventing the collapse of government-backed mortgage giants. Worry centers on the possibility that foreigners could come to doubt the American wherewithal to pay back such an extraordinary sum, prompting them to stop — or at least slow — their deposits of savings into the United States.http://louis0j0sheehan0esquire.wordpress.com
That could send the dollar plummeting, making imported goods more expensive for American consumers and businesses. It would force the Treasury to pay higher returns to find takers for its debt, increasing interest rates for home- and auto-buyers, for businesses and credit-card holders. http://louis0j0sheehan0esquire.wordpress.com
“We got into this mess to a considerable extent by overborrowing,” said Martin N. Baily, a chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Clinton and now a fellow at the Brookings Institution. “Now, we’re saying, ‘Well, O.K., let’s just borrow a bunch more, and that will help us get out of this mess.’ It’s like a drunk who says, ‘Give me a bottle of Scotch, and then I’ll be O.K. and I won’t have to drink anymore.’ Eventually, we have to get off this binge of borrowing.”
Some argue that the moment for sobriety is long overdue, and postponing it further only increases the ultimate costs. “Our government doesn’t have enough spare cash to bail out a lemonade stand,” declared Peter Schiff president of Euro Pacific Capital, a Connecticut-based trading house. “Our standard of living must decline to reflect years of reckless consumption and the disintegration of our industrial base. Only by swallowing this tough medicine now will our sick economy ever recover.”
But most economists cast such thinking as recklessly extreme, akin to putting an obese person on a painful diet in the name of long-term health just as they are fighting off a potentially lethal infection. http://louis0j0sheehan0esquire.wordpress.com In the dominant view, now is no time for austerity — not with paychecks disappearing from the economy and gyrating markets wiping out retirement savings. Not with the financial system in virtual lockdown, and much of the world in a similar state of retrenchment, shrinking demand for American goods and services. http://louis0j0sheehan0esquire.wordpress.com
Since the Great Depression, the conventional prescription for such times is to have the government step in and create demand by cycling its dollars through the economy, generating jobs and business opportunities. That such dollars must be borrowed is hardly ideal, adding to the long-term strains on the nation. But the immediate risks of not spending them could be grave.
“This is a dangerous situation,” says Mr. Baily, essentially arguing that the drunk must be kept in Scotch a while longer, lest he burn down the neighborhood in the midst of a crisis. “The risks of things actually getting worse and us going into a really severe recession are high. We need to get more money out there now.”
Had the government worried more about limiting spending than about the potential collapse of the mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it might have triggered precisely the dark scenario that consumes those who worry most about growing American debt, argues Brad Setser, an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations.
China purchased a lot of Fannie and Freddie bonds with the understanding that they were backed by the American government. No bailout “would have been portrayed in China as defaulting on the Chinese people,” Mr. Setser said. That would have increased the likelihood that China would start parking its savings somewhere other than the United States.
The most frequently voiced worry about the bailouts is that the Fed, by sending so much money sloshing through the system, risks generating a bad case of rising prices later on. That puts the onus on the Fed to reverse course and crimp economic activity by lifting interest rates and selling assets back to banks once growth resumes.
But finding the appropriate point to act tends to be more art than science. The Fed might move too early and send the economy back into a tailspin. It might wait too long and let too much money generate inflation.
“It’s a tricky business,” says Allan H. Meltzer, an economist at Carnegie Mellon University, and a former economic adviser to President Reagan. “There’s no math model that tells us when to do it or how.”
But that, as most economists see it, is a worry for another day. Some policy makers are focused on staving off the opposite problem — deflation, or falling prices, as demand weakens to the point that goods pile up without buyers, sending prices down and reducing the incentive for businesses to invest. That could shrink demand further and perhaps even deliver the sort of downward spiral that pinned Japan in the weeds of stagnant growth during the 1990s.
“Those who claim that sharp increases in federal borrowing and the national debt would be ill advised at the present time, when the economy is weakening while deflation threatens, have failed to study Japan’s history,” declared the economist John H. Makin in a report published by the conservative American Enterprise Institute — ordinarily, a staunch advocate for lean government.
So back to the well Americans go, putting aside worries about debt, unleashing another wave of synthesized money in an effort to prevent deeper misery.
“Right now,” Mr. Setser says, “the risk is not doing enough.” Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire.
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